本文来源：宏观交易员 (ID:gh_296162bfc5f7)，华尔街见闻专栏作者

　　11.22.2018 Thur， Sunny， Air Polluted

　　Summary：走弱多日的欧洲市场尽管受到欧盟拒绝意大利预算不利消息的冲击，仍然顽强反弹。美国市场也小幅提振。这其中，油价反弹功不可没。正所谓“谁过节还不吃顿饺子”。注意近期Fed鸽派言论急剧密集以及下周末G20.

　　Euro Session:

　　A share struggled through the latest accusations came from USTR Lighthizer just 10 days before the G20 meeting and shrugged off its early weakness rising into the close as the rest of Asia bourses mixed after US stocks slumped in the previous session again. All through Tokyo time, USTs were in offer tone with TY climbing up less than 2 bps.

　　The sentiment in EU improved quite a lot while BTPs were boosted. EU equities gapped higher with US stock futures index rising. With no clarity as to the fronts of Brexit, Italy budget ,trade ,car tariff etc, the oil bounce could help.

　　How EU would react to Italy budget is the focus since we can see May secured her own position . The updated plan presented by Rome left no change the macro and fiscal aggregates and it left EU no choice. Around 7 o'clock,EU releases its opinion on budget plans of euro-area nations today and singled Rome for breaking fiscal rules. BTPs had rallied from the open, following a report that Deputy PM Salvini may be open to budget revisions. All the major figures of Italy government , Conte, Salvini and Di Maio clarified their tough stance on budget which can't keep the market regarding they are bluffing. Italy equity went higher with BTPs while EU market stay in a risk on sentiment.

　　As to Brexit, May meets Junker yesterday to discuss the draft of Brexit agreement, but they failed to finalize a deal while an EU spokesperson said that the work towards a resolution will continue. May later told the BBC that the two will meet again on Saturday and that further progress has been made.

　　Economy data:

　　No

　　US Session:

　　US session was light ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday, Treasury markets were little changed directionally, rallying on the back of a weaker than expected reading on durable goods orders which included a downward revision to September core orders. And it soon revered as US equities recovered following yesterday’s rout, aided by a bounce in energy prices. While all the major indexes jumped a little around 1:00, UST went up again. , By the close, indu, spx and ccmp did slip from its intraday highs in the final hour.

　　As to Fed, Kaplan (non-voter) said “we’re getting close or approaching neutral” the rate that is neither accommodative nor restrictive. He also said that the Fed will be “data dependent.”

　　$11bn TIPS awarded at 1.109%, a 0.2bp tail vs. the 11:30am WI level. The allocation stayed well on its routine style while we can see the clear drop of BE.

　　9:30, US Oct durable goods orders pre -4.4% mom vs -2.6%, prior 0.7% revised down to -0.1%. The decline was caused by a 21.4% decline in civilian aircraft bookings and a 59.3% decline in defense aircraft orders. To be noted , the non-defence goods order(ex-aircraft) 0.0% mom vs 0.2%, prior -0.1% revised down to -0.5%

　　11:00, US Oct existing home sales 5.22m vs 5.20m.

　　US Nov. final U of Michigan confidence index 97.5, pre 98.3.

　　Key Data And Events Ahead:

　　FRA manufacturing confidence

　　EMU consumer confidence

　　本文由宏观交易员授权华尔街见闻转载

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