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近期，“china focus”英文网站发表了环球战略智库研究员杨胜云的时事分析《China And ASEAN Conduct Joint Military Exercises To Safeguard Peace In The South China Sea》。文章主要观点为：

1、中国已连续9年成为东盟第一大贸易伙伴，并率先同东盟建立自由贸易区。但相对于经贸关系而言，军事安全关系相对滞后，这既有中国与部分东盟国家存在南海主权权益分歧的原因，也与美国等域外势力的介入密切相关。

2、随着中菲关系的转圜、南海问题降温，特别是《南海行为准则》取得重大进展，中国与东盟国家间政治互信增强。同时，美国大力推动 “印太战略”，以“自由航行”为幌子军事介入南海问题，不仅致使东盟在地区安全中的作用相对降低，而且威胁到南海的和平稳定。在此背景下，中国与东盟国家加强战略沟通和安全互信有了双向的驱动力。

3、东盟首次与单一国家进行联合军演，且以《海上意外相遇规则》使用、海上联合搜救以及直升机跨平台降落等为重点课目，反映出地区局势变化的“风向”：即中国和东盟都希望降低南海的安全风险。

4、在中国-东盟命运共同体加快推进和南海形势面临“被推高”威胁的情况下，此次军演有助于增进中国与东盟国家间的政治互信和安全共识，联演也有望成为中国与东盟加深彼此了解的“可持续平台”以及深化防务合作的“重要品牌”。

5、美国在南海针对中国的“航行自由行动”和情报搜集活动更加频繁和具有挑衅性。但事实上，中国与东盟国家间在南海开展联合搜救、打击海盗等合作，是维护南海作为国际航道的航行自由与安全更为有效的举措。

英文全文如下：

On October 22-28, 2018, more than 1,200 China and Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) military personnel held joint maritime exercises in Zhanjiang, Guangdong, China — the headquarters of China’s South China Sea Fleet. These exercises marked the first time that ASEAN has conducted a joint military drill with a single country and also the first time that China has held maritime exercises with ASEAN.

China and ASEAN decided to establish a strategic partnership heading for peace and prosperity as early as 15 years ago, and they have made practical progress. China has been ASEAN’s largest trading partner for nine consecutive years, and was the first to establish a free trade area with ASEAN. However, the China-ASEAN relationship in areas of military and security is not as good as the relationship that exists in trade and economy.

More Frequent Military Communication

As early as in 2015, China officially proposed joint military drills with the 10 members of ASEAN, but ASEAN responded ambiguously at first. With improvements in China-Philippines relations and the alleviation of the South China Sea issue, in particular in regards to the substantial progress of the Code of Conduct on the South China Sea, China and ASEAN countries see strengthened mutual trust in terms of politics. At the same time, the US has vigorously promoted its Indo-Pacific strategy and intervened in the South China Sea issue, weakening ASEAN’s influence in regional security and threatening the peace and stability of the South China Sea. Under these circumstances, China and the ASEAN have more reason to enhance strategic communication and mutual trust in security. At the Shangri-ra Dialogue in Singapore in June 2017, Singapore’s defense minister Ng Eng Hen announced that ASEAN would hold maritime exercises with China for the first time. Singapore was the rotating chair-elect of ASEAN at that time.

The Zhanjiang maritime exercise held from October 22 to 28 mainly included the use of a Code of Unplanned Encounters at Sea, a joint sea rescue exercise and cross-platform landing of helicopters. The participating countries have all said they are satisfied with the achievements reached during the exercise and are looking forward to strengthening defense cooperation with China. This indicates the trend of change in the regional situation — China and ASEAN both want to reduce security risks in the South China Sea and hope to enhance mutual trust through maritime military cooperation. Philippine Defense Secretary Delfin Lorenzana told Japanese media that he welcomed China’s participation in the military drill.

“We’d rather have conversations with each other than be stuck in mutual suspicion,” Lorenzana said.

Nevertheless, these are only a small part of the achievements reached thanks to the strengthening of China-ASEAN defense relations. In October, China’s Defense Minister Wei Fenghe visited Singapore to attend the ASEAN Defense Ministers’ Extended Meeting. Following Wei’s visit to Singapore, six ASEAN Defense Ministers attended the Eighth Beijing Xiangshan Forum in Beijing. During the joint military exercise in the Zhanjiang Sea area, China held a joint military drill with Malaysia and Thailand in the Strait of Malacca. China-ASEAN military and security communication and cooperation has never reached such heights before.

Jointly Safeguard the Safety of the South China Sea

As the establishment of a China-ASEAN community of shared future advances and the South China Sea situation raises more concern regarding alleged threats, this military drill is beneficial to promote mutual trust in politics and common sense in security between China and ASEAN. It is also beneficial to efforts to construct a more detailed and concrete maritime practical cooperation system in the South China Sea. Vice-Admiral and commander of the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) of China Yuan Yubai said at the drill’s opening ceremony that this joint exercise is not a one-off interaction, but marks a crucial approach for China and ASEAN to understand one another in the long run and establish a platform for the two parties to enhance their defense cooperation.

More practically, military cooperation is helpful for countries concerned with the South China Sea issue to settle their differences on their own. After Donald Trump took office, he conducted “Freedom of Navigation” operations in the name of upholding freedom of navigation and more frequent and more provocative intelligence gathering activities. American allies such as Japan, Australia, the UK and France later sent military forces into the controversial sea area in the South China Sea, which brought serious challenges to the security there.

The China-ASEAN joint military drill indicates that regional countries are making efforts to build rules of maritime cooperation in the South China Sea. In fact, cooperation between China and South China Sea nations in search and rescue as well as combating pirates is aimed precisely at safeguarding the freedom and safety of navigation in the South China Sea, an international waterway.

◎作者|杨胜云 环球战略智库研究员