双语阅读｜韩国新经济政策难断财阀手足

韩国经济遇阻来自翻吧 00:00 08:27

CHO IMHO is angry. Perched on an enormous black leather chair, the director of South Korea’s association of small businesses throws up his arms in despair as he discusses the government’s economic policy. Mr Cho reserves particular ire for the recent increase in the minimum wage to 7,530 won ($6.65) an hour, 16% more than it was a year ago. The leap is the centrepiece of the government’s plan to revive the economy by boosting the incomes of the poor; further hikes are planned. Mr Cho claims many of the firms he represents are considering shutting down. Others have shed staff. “It’s crazy, a disaster,” he says.

韩国小企业联合会(association of small businesses)会长CHO IMHO很生气。他坐在一张巨大的黑色皮革座椅里，聊到韩国政府的经济政策时，无奈地伸起双手。CHO特别不满意最近将最低工资提高到7530韩元(6.65美元)/小时的做法，这同比前增加了16%。大幅提升薪资的作法是韩国政府提高穷人收入振兴本国经济的核心；韩国政府还计划进一步加息。CHO表示，协会里的很多企业正在考虑关门。另一些企业在裁员。“这太疯狂了，是一场灾难，”他说。

Mr Cho is a proud right-winger from Daegu, a nest of South Korean conservatism. His aversion to the policies of the left-leaning president, Moon Jae-in, is perhaps not surprising. But in recent months a spate of disappointing employment data and loud protests from businesses have stirred unease within the government. The finance minister, for one, has sounded surprisingly equivocal about the increases.

CHO来自韩国保守主义的巢穴大邱，是一位自负的右翼分子。或许他对左倾总统文在寅(Moon Jae-in)政策的厌恶在意料之中。但最近几个月，一连串令人失望的就业数据和企业界的强烈抗议，引发政府内部的不安情绪。例如，财政部长对加息模棱两可态度就让人意外。

Mr Moon has pledged to stick to his strategy of “income-led growth”, which remains popular with voters. But he now says that the minimum wage will not rise as quickly as originally planned. He also demoted Hong Jang-pyo, an adviser who was one of the policy’s architects. Some observers believe that Chang Ha-sung, his chief of staff for policy and the other main advocate of income-led growth, may be next to go. “There are tensions between the committed reformers and those who are worried about political backlash,” says Jun Sung-in of Hongik University in Seoul. “Currently, the worriers are winning.”

文在寅承曾诺将会坚持“收入导向型增长”策略，这在选民中仍很受欢迎。不过，他现在表示，最低工资的涨幅不会像最初设想地那么快。他还将政策制定者之一的顾问洪相杓降职。一些观察人士认为，另一个下台的可能是他的政策幕僚长、另一位主要的收入导向型增长倡导者张成泽(Chang Ha-sung)。首尔弘益大学(Hongik University)的Jun Sung-in说道：“坚定的改革者和那些担心政治反弹的人之间存在紧张关系。目前，忧虑者正在占得上风。”

Small wonder: according to South Korea’s statistics agency, the income of the lowest 20% of earners fell by 3.7% in the second quarter of this year compared with the same period last year (for high earners, it rose by 12.4%). That suggests that job losses have more than offset increased wages among those whom the policy is intended to help. There has certainly been no spurt in the growth rate, which continues to hover around 3%.

这不足为奇：根据韩国统计署数据，今年第二季度，收入最低的20%人群的收入与去年同期相比下降了3.7%(高收入者增加了12.4%)。这表明，就业岗位的减少远远抵消了该政策要帮助的人群所增长的工资。毫无疑问，最低工资增长率并没有突飞猛进，持续徘徊在3%左右。

It is not obvious, however, that the increase in the minimum wage is to blame for the disappointing data. There are other potential culprits: uncertainty resulting from the trade war between America and China, worries earlier this year about South Korea’s own free trade agreement with the United States and the slowdown in construction as a result of tighter mortgage-lending rules. Still, the sudden increase may have tipped the scales.

然而，最低工资标准的提高是否导致这些令人失望的数据，目前并不确切。还有其它一些潜在的影响因素：中美贸易战带来的不确定性；今年早些时候对韩国与美国的自由贸易协定的担忧；抵押贷款法规收紧致使建筑业放缓。不过，最低工资突然上涨情况可能就会扭转局面。

编译：闫雪芹

编辑：翻吧君

来源：经济学人（2018.10.20）

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