在金融市场，科技可以取代人类吗？｜英语每天学

上海图书馆每天为头条号的读者提供优质的英语阅读

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人工智能在金融业的运作，已经有数年的历史。基于大数据、人工智能(AI)、云计算科技的一大批现实应用，均已纷纷落地投入使用，极大地提高了工作效率。一时间，有关“人工智能可能让银行职员和分析师们失业”、“华尔街将失守”等忧虑也随之而来。

在传统金融业抢滩金融科技(Fintech)浪潮的同时，后者真能给世界带来颠覆性变革吗?华尔街会不会像传说中那样“沦陷”?金融科技未来趋势将是怎样的?众多机构及业内人士表示，颠覆或许尚早，但未来的无限可能值得期许。

# Technology will not replace humans in the financial markets#

Goldman Sachs, the investment bank, recently announced that two-thirds of all trades on major stock exchanges are now carried out by computers. Despite this, we strongly believe that humans still have a central role to play in the financial markets and will do for the foreseeable future.

Let us consider one element of our fundamental research process: the visit to a company’s management. Human beings are deeply social creatures, with the ability to use instinct, to read body language and to judge atmosphere.

It is hard to imagine a computer knowing precisely when to ask the killer question of a chief executive, and how to judge the response. The portfolio manager will have seen numerous similar management teams and will be able to measure the chief executive’s answers versus his or her experience of similar situations.

Will computers be able to get a feel for the culture of a company, for how the employees are being motivated, for the ambience on a factory floor? The answer is maybe, but not yet. Deep learning is moving quickly and is making advances which, until only recently, seemed unimaginable. There is technology in development that will analyze company conference calls, letting portfolio managers know not only whether the management is telling the truth, but also how confident they are in what they are saying.

In our view, however, such analysis will for some time yet still need to go through a human portfolio manager who can synthesize it into an effective investment decision. We were recently told by the head of research at a leading investment bank that 2016 would be the first year that he had not hired a single analyst. All of his recruitment budget went on technology and people to operate that technology.

Human will have an integral part to play, but it is not unfair to say that the investment firm of the future is likely to look very different from its current incarnation.