巴西前部長：中國威脅誰了？
導讀
過去十年間，中國經濟取得了長足發展，也爲其他國家的發展提供了借鑑。這背後有哪些原因?近日，巴西前旅遊部部長、現任清華大學教授福鑫(Alessandro Teixeira)做客中國日報《連線》欄目，帶來他對中國發展和相關問題的解讀。
中國的發展不是威脅
Q:China has achieved many economic milestones over the past decade, but the Western politicians' saying "China is a threat to the world" has followed all the way. What is your opinion on this?
過去十年間，中國經濟取得了許多里程碑式的成就。與之相伴，西方政治家就“中國威脅論”喋喋不休。對於這個現象，您怎麼看?
A:I think we need to analyze this statement very carefully. When you say "Western", I think it’s too heavy, it's not Western, maybe mainly it's America and some allied European countries. Because if you go to South America, nobody's talking about China being a threat. If you go to Africa, nobody is talking about it as a trap. People who tell you that or people who are vocal about that are from some countries in the Europe, not all of them, and then there's the United States. So the question is, a threat to whom?
我認爲這個說法值得仔細分析。當你說“西方”的時候，我認爲太廣泛了。你所謂的“西方”，我認爲不是西方，而主要是美國和其部分歐洲盟友。在南美，沒人談論中國是個威脅。非洲也沒人討論“債務陷阱”。一直拿“中國威脅論”來說事的，是少數幾個歐洲國家，不是全部，以及美國。所以問題應該是，中國對誰產生了威脅?
Another question is, why is China a threat? Maybe because the United States doesn't want to compete with anybody else? And China represents, not because China wants to, but represents competition to the US in terms of technology, competition to the US in terms of production. So those are the main elements. I don't see China being a threat to anyone. China's foreign policy, respects sovereignty of every single country. China never invades, never declares war. We are talking about competition in a very narrow field, that is economics.
問題之二在於：爲何說中國是一個威脅?或許是因爲美國不想和其他國家競爭?不是中國想要去競爭，而是中國在科技、製造的實力使其被美國視爲競爭對手。所以這些纔是關鍵元素。我認爲中國不會對任何國家產生威脅。中國的外交政策尊重每一個國家的主權。中國從不發起侵略，也從不對外宣戰。我們所說的競爭僅限於特定的領域，就是經濟領域。
And that's natural because China wants to achieve development. And when to achieve development, you need to have, as President Xi Jinping says, dual circulation, internal market, external market. And if competition is not good, I don't understand, because the United States loves to say that they want to have free competition. So let China compete in the international market, so I don't see a threat in any way. I can see competition, I can see China trying to gain the market.
但這是很自然的事，中國要發展，想要發展，就要如習近平主席所說，實現雙循環，在外部和內部的市場有機循環起來。如果競爭不是好事，那讓我不明白的是，爲什麼美國還總是喜歡自我標榜“自由競爭”?所以，讓中國在國際市場上競爭，無論如何，我都不認爲中國的發展是一種威脅，我看到的是競爭，是中國在努力爭取市場。
“一帶一路”倡議
不是中國的“馬歇爾計劃”
Q:The Diplomat compared China's BRI to the US's Marshall Plan in a 2016 article. What is your estimation of BRI?
《外交學者》雜誌在一篇2016年的文章中將中國的“一帶一路”倡議比作美國的馬歇爾計劃。您怎麼看待“一帶一路”倡議?
A:It's completely different. Marshall Plan is a plan for reconstruction and for economic fostering. BRI is not that.
“一帶一路”倡議和馬歇爾計劃完全不同。馬歇爾計劃旨在戰後重建和復甦經濟。“一帶一路”不是。
Many people would say that the Belt and Road Initiative is a Chinese initiative. Many people say that it’s a way for China to increase trade or increase investment outside. The way I see it is a little different. I see it as a cooperation platform.
許多人認爲“一帶一路”倡議是中國倡議。也有許多人說它是中國增長貿易、促進外部投資的方式。我的看法稍許不同。我認爲“一帶一路”倡議是一個合作平臺。
So when we have Latin American countries and there's a discussion, how would Latin America take part in it? How could Latin America engage better? And again, the point that I'd like to stress is that Latin America can engage with many other countries other than China. Because China had the idea to create a platform, but China doesn't want to monopolize it and keep the Belt and Road Initiative to itself. No, it wants to spread around the world as a cooperation platform. You want to be part of BRI. That's fine. If you're not, it's okay. It's your option.
所以，當拉丁美洲國家加入了“一帶一路”倡議後，當地就開始進行關於拉丁美洲國家如何參與該倡議的討論，拉丁美洲國家怎樣更好地參與進來?我想再次強調一點，這並不是只與中國打交道，因爲中國只是創造了一個平臺，中國並不希望一家獨大，將“一帶一路”倡議佔爲己有。不，中國是想向世界提供一個合作平臺。你想要加入，那非常棒。你不想加入，沒問題，你有選擇的自由。
What I am saying is that if you're part of BRI, you would have enjoyed a club that can invest together, can do trade together, can share different cultural elements together, can participate in discussion of the digital economy, digital transformation, societal transformations. So that's the important point.
我想說的是，如果你是“一帶一路”倡議的成員，你就好像加入了一個俱樂部，大家一起投資，一起貿易，一起分享不同文化，一起參與數字經濟、數字轉型、社會轉型的討論。這點非常重要。
I've heard people say many times, if you're part of the BRI, China will invest in you, will buy from you. No, that's not the case. China never said that. What China always said is that we are creating, we are sharing a vision of the world of humankind where we want development and prosperity. BRI is a tool that can help us to achieve that. China never said that the only tool is our tool. There is no need for these adjectives in the discussion. What we have in the discussion is something that could help the world.
我多次聽到別人說，如果你參與共建“一帶一路”，那麼中國就會向你投資、向你買東西。不，並非如此。中國從來沒說過這樣的話。中國一直說我們要創建人類命運共同體，共同發展，共同繁榮。“一帶一路”倡議就是幫我們實現它的工具。中國從沒說過我們的工具是唯一的工具。這些話從沒出現在討論中。我們在討論一些對世界有益的事情。
中美兩國不會脫鉤
Q:In the context of globalization, what is your opinion about the so-called China-US decoupling?
在全球化背景下，您如何看待所謂的“中美脫鉤”?
A:In my opinion, it's very, very hard to have a decoupling. When you are the first and second economies, there is no possibility of decoupling. Why? Because you are integrated, not fully, in some value chains, in some supply chains, you are completely integrated.
在我看來，中美兩國很難脫鉤。兩者作爲世界第一大和第二大經濟體，兩者不可能做到脫鉤。爲什麼呢?因爲中美已經在一些價值鏈、供應鏈中相互融合，已經融合在一起。
But of course, if you are two largest economies in the world, there is no possibility of decoupling. So I think what the US Trade Representative says in Singapore is the right thing. You cannot divorce. You can realign, you can restrategize, but you cannot divorce. There is no such thing in decoupling. There is no such thing in decoupling in terms of macro economics. There is no such thing of decoupling in terms of technology. Because they are already integrated.
當然，作爲世界上最大的兩個經濟體，兩者不可能做到脫鉤。所以，我贊同美國貿易代表戴琪在新加坡所說的話，中美兩國不能脫鉤。兩個國家可能重新調整關係，可能重新部署規劃，但是不可能脫鉤。不存在脫鉤，從宏觀經濟而言，脫鉤不存在，從科技層面而言，脫鉤也不存在，因爲兩國已經緊密結合。
It took a long time, almost two decades, three decades for this integration between the American economy and the Chinese economy. You can not just do it by a presidential order, say "now disappear", it's impossible. People that work with real economics know that. So one thing is the ideological or political use of this term, "decoupling". Another thing is the real economic meaning of decoupling. In the political arena, you can talk about that. But in practical terms, you can reduce but never decouple.
中美經濟用了二三十年才達到了今天這種融合程度，現在僅憑一紙總統令就要中止合作，這是不可能的。從事實體經濟的人都明白這點。“脫鉤”在意識形態或政治上，與在實體經濟中，有着不同的含義。在政治方面或許會有這方面的討論，在實際情況中，融合或許會減少，但脫鉤絕不可能發生。
中國發展的四大因素
Q:As former special advisor to the president of Brazil, what do you think of China's development?
作爲前巴西總統顧問，你怎麼看待中國的發展?
A:I think the root of China's objective, is to achieve development for its people. It's very important. It's not a dream, it's a reality. And I think China can do that because it has its unique system.
我認爲中國發展目標的根基在於爲人民謀發展。這一點非常重要。這不是夢，這是現實。我認爲中國可以做到這點，因爲它有獨特的體制。
How can China get to that? I always say that there are some important elements. The first element that’s very critical is leadership. When the leadership takes a decision, that's taken seriously by everybody, by private sector, by media, by government. So you know the direction where you need to go.
中國如何實現發展?我一直說有幾個重要因素。第一個關鍵因素是領導力。中國的領導層做出決策時，全民都認真參與其中，私有企業、媒體、政府都包括在內，所以你可以清楚瞭解國家的發展方向。
The second important element is education. I am doing a research, and I see that at least thirty percent of the income of families go to education. Not only formal education but after school, K12, everything. So that's very important. If you have money, you put money in education and that's different in Western society. Sometimes we take education for granted. We don't think that you need it. Many people say, because the competition in China is huge. But it doesn’t matter if he's in China or outside. You want to prepare. So the second element is education.
第二個因素，是教育。我在做一項調研，我發現中國家庭收入裏，至少三成以上都投入到了教育之中。不僅是正規教育，還有課後輔導，基礎教育等等。這很重要。中國家庭把錢花在教育上，這和西方社會不一樣。西方人往往認爲教育是理所當然的，不需要額外投入。很多人會說，這是因爲中國的競爭壓力很大。但無論在中國還是在國外，人都會面臨競爭，人們總是希望有所準備。所以第二個因素是教育。
The third element is the faith that the population has in the government and in the system. The government plays an important role in terms of leadership, but plays a much more important role in terms of governance. So people understand where you want to go.
第三個因素是中國人對政府和體制的信念。政府發揮着重要的領導決策作用，也發揮着重要的治理職能。所以人們能瞭解政府的方向。
The fourth element I think, it's an important element, is the culture of Chinese people, is how they perceive the world. Not in the short run, but it's a long run.
第四個因素，我認爲是很重要的一點，是中國的文化，是中國人民如何看待世界，不是隻看眼前，而是長遠規劃。
I think those four elements are the elements that make China different than any other place around the world.
在我看來，這四個因素讓中國不同於世界其他地區。
結語
Unique systems, solid education, firm faith in the government, and long-term vision are the four characteristics of China's path, in Professor Teixeira's observation. With its roots in Chinese soil, the country's path has proved suitable for China's culture and conditions. It has brought the Chinese people peaceful and fulfilled lives, and the Chinese nation lasting prosperity.
獨特的體系、紮實的教育、人民對政府的堅定信念以及長遠規劃，是福鑫教授觀察到的中國道路的四大特徵。中國道路紮根於中國土壤，實踐證明，它適應中國的文化和國情。它給中國百姓帶來了安穩幸福的生活，也給國家帶來了長富久安。
值班主任：李歡
