股市變幻莫測，沒有人能準確地預測未來股市的走勢如何。

但是對於中國股市來說，2018年註定是里程碑式的一年。

隨着中國不斷推進對股市的改革，中國股市將進一步開放。

一個更加寬鬆和開放的股市，將會吸引更多國內外投資者的目光，也會給股市注入更多的活力。

No one can rightfully predict if this year stocks will go up, down, sideways, or around in circles, but one trend that few can argue against is that 2018 is meant to be a year full of milestones for China’s stock market. As China embarks on a road of robust reforms towards market access and liberalization, 2018 marks a critical period for the world's second largest equity market.

A股加入MSCI | Joining the MSCI club

去年MSCI宣佈，中國A股即將於今年6月正式加入MSCI。

談及MSCI，實際上對不少投資者來說，已經並不陌生。MSCI（Morgan Stanley Capital International），即美國投資銀行摩根士丹利所編制的一系列股價指數。其發佈的MSCI指數是全球投資組合經理最多采用的基準指數之一。其中，據部分機構測算，全球約有9.5萬億美元資產參考MSCI指數。

當然，MSCI選擇和中國合作，也得益於中國一直致力於完善市場準入水平以及創建更加開放的資本市場。

然而，資本市場的不斷開放，本身也是一把雙刃劍。“入摩”後，A股市場將面臨更大的考驗和不確定性。在風險應對能力和危機應急水平上，A股市場還需進一步提高應對能力。

In less than three months, global investors will gain greater exposure to China’s domestic equities, known as A-shares, as they get included in the MSCI emerging markets index. About 1.6 trillion US dollars worth of funds passively tracking the benchmark index will be mandated to buy into the Chinese stock market.

The MSCI’s decision to incorporate Chinese stocks in its indices is recognition of China’s market liberalization efforts, especially the successful launch and implementation of the Shenzhen Stock Connect in December 2016, granting global investors a broader channel through which to introduce Chinese mainland equities into their portfolios.

The first pivotal moment will come in June, when domestic stocks will be catapulted into global funds, and is expected to bring significant upside to the world’s second largest market. It is largely anticipated to drive up each of the more than 200 stocks admitted, and also have a spillover effect on their respective sectors, which could likely buffer market confidence and send the broader Shanghai and Shenzhen indices up.

But increasing global demand and attention on the domestic shares are also likely to put pressure on the trading volume of the dual Hong Kong connects, and the risk of the daily quotas being hit will be much higher.

MSCI的“誘惑” | Dangling carrots

爲什麼中國股市監管層使盡渾身解數，儘管失敗數次，也要將A股納入MSCI呢？

A股“入摩”後，將會大大提升國內股市與國際投資人的接觸，並且進一步促進中國境內市場與全球資本市場進一步融合。由此，人民幣也會在國際舞臺中扮演着更加重要的角色。

因此，對於中國股市，加入MSCI就像一根鮮美的胡蘿蔔懸掛在面前，使人無法拒絕其巨大的誘惑。而加入MSCI後，也將進一步激勵股市發展，推動股市的准入性、紀律性和公開性進一步完善。

The inclusion in June will lead to increased market exposure for investors globally and increased integration of Chinese equity markets with global capital markets. As a consequence, we will see the yuan playing an ever-increasing role on the global stage and the further development of index futures and currency derivatives.

The prospect of a higher weight in the MSCI indices will act as a carrot, or an incentive to further enhance market practices to ensure even better accessibility, discipline and disclosure.

In the long run, we might expect to see an easing of barriers, such as the removal of the 30 percent foreign ownership cap and more relaxed repatriation rules for QFII. The indices provider mentioned it hoped to see the gradual uplift of the northbound quota for the Hong Kong connect, better implementation of suspension limits and more enforcement over information disclosure, as well as the loosening of the approval process for share index-linked investment vehicles in the coming years.

繼續開放市場 | Pressing on with liberalization

2018年，中國股市會在各個方面繼續推進股市的開放性。

股票註冊制、退市機制、信息披露機制、市場監管機制以及中國信託憑證（CDR），這些都是一直以來中國股市改革的要點，並且在短時間內都有希望真正實現。

比如於今年宣佈被推遲兩年實行的股票註冊制。股票註冊制的本質是信息披露制度。擁有完善的信息披露機制，才能保證企業在市場中的信息更加透明。

量變引起質變。改革也不是一蹴而就，需要前期大量的準備。

儘管改革實行的日期還未可知，2018年，中國股市開放的腳步並不會停歇。

We can also expect steps in the direction of a more open registration-based listing system, which has been delayed for another two years, as opposed to the current approval-based system. China’s securities regulator and the dual bourses have come out with more explicit and firm measures to force non-compliant companies to be delisted, paring out the companies that no longer deserve to raise cash freely from the public.

Delisting mechanisms with more bite can be seen as a prerequisite to protect retail investors, which still constitute the majority, from getting the short end of the stick. It could also prevent the retail investors from falling prey to companies that do not diligently disclose information or maliciously violate regulation, before opening the flood gates and lowering the threshold for raising capital on the stock market.

There is also much buzz over China Depository Receipts, or CDRs, the Chinese equivalent of ADRs to grant domestic investors greater exposure to US-listed tech stocks. Remarks have been repeatedly made by securities authorities on all levels about how they have had enough of China’s investors missing out on the opportunities in tech and the new economy.

With the Hong Kong Exchange already venturing down the path, regulators may begin to consider dual class shares with a longer trend in mind. This will attract tech companies whose founders are inclined to retain control through special voting rights even as their shares are diluted.

From the Two Sessions we have also seen incessant calls for better information disclosure, and there are hopes for more muscle devoted to monitoring foul play, as well as heavier consequences for insider trading and market manipulation.

“黑天鵝效應” | Black swans

中美貿易戰來勢洶洶，全球股市惶惶不安。

北京時間3月23日，特朗普簽署總統備忘錄，宣佈對華出口的600億美元商品徵收關稅。隨後，商務部回應將對美國約30億進口商品加徵關稅，中美貿易戰一炮打響。籠罩在中美貿易的陰霾下，全球股市隨之大跌。

貿易戰或許是影響國際金融市場穩定性的最大的不確定因素。

這次中美貿易戰的突然來襲，給了全球金融市場一個措手不及。中美貿易戰就像“黑天鵝”效應，給全球金融市場帶來了無法預測的重創。

然而，誰又能知曉，這場貿易戰只是一次短暫性事件，抑或僅僅是一個開始。

The threat of a China-US trade war has never been so real as in the past few weeks, as China toughens its stance and gets into a position to retaliate. Global markets have taken a tumble since Trump’s decision to impose tariffs on up to 60 billion US dollars of imports from China, the Shanghai Composite Index was down 3.4 percent and the Shenzhen Component Index fell more than four percent, while the Dow Jones suffered a similar blow.

A trade war is perhaps the greatest uncertainty troubling what would otherwise be a relatively stable and consistent course towards financial stability and market reforms. While the short term impact is sure to sting for weeks, it seems there is still time to backtrack. Looking back months from now, the slump could either be the first clap of thunder, or a mere blip.