周小川：中国经济增长6%+浮动汇率，就可抵御外部冲击

中国央行前行长周小川

周五在意大利接受了CNBC电视台的采访

他表示：

只要中国每年经济增长6%

再加上浮动汇率

就可抵御贸易战的外部冲击

中国央行行长周小川周五在接受CNBC采访时表示，中美贸易战不会对中国经济有太大的影响。

The trade war between Washington and Beijing won’t have a huge effect on the Chinese economy, the former People’s Bank of China (PBOC) governor Zhou aochuan told CNBC Friday.

“我们用数学模型计算贸易战的负面影响，并不是很大，也不显着，对中国经济的影响不到半个百分点。”周小川是在意大利参加Ambrosetti 论坛时做出上述表示的。

“We used a mathematical model to calculate the negative impact of the trade war. It is not very large, it is not significant. It is less than half a percent (of an) impact to the Chinese economy,” Zhou told CNBC’s Steve Sedgwick at the Ambrosetti Forum on the shores of Lake Como in Italy.

美国总统特朗普已表示，他准备对价值5060亿美元的全部美国进口中国商品征收关税。到目前为止，华盛顿已经对价值500亿美元的中国商品征收了关税，本月又有2000亿美元的新关税受到威胁。但由于中美贸易的不对等，中国无法应对进一步的关税威胁。

President Donald Trump has said he’s ready to erect tariffs on all $506 billion worth of Chinese imports to the U.S. So far, Washington has slapped duties on $50 billion worth of Chinese goods, and a fresh $200 billion more is threatened this month. China can’t match the tariff threats because of the mismatch in trade.

周小川指出，中国对此的反应是尽快向其他国家转移出口，这也是人民银行给习近平主席的建议。

Zhou said China’s response would be to quickly re-route goods to other countries and this is what the PBOC has also advised President .

“最糟糕的情况是，中国不再向美国市场出口价值5000亿美元的货物，然后再取决于你能以多快的速度将这些货物出口至其他国家。事实上，我认为中国可以迅速采取行动。”他补充到。

“The worst case scenario is that China is no longer going to export $500 billion of goods to the U.S. market and then its dependent how quickly you can diversify those export goods to the other countries. Actually I think China could act quickly,” Zhou added.

不过，周小川警告称，经济模型无法加计中国內部市场情绪的快速变化。

The former PBOC governor warned however that economic modelling could not factor in a quick shift in the mood within China.

“就像十年前雷曼兄弟事件的发生，突然出现恐慌和危机蔓延，所以这类事情不容易分析。”他又补充称，以每年经济增长6%加上浮动汇率，中国经济有能力抵御外部冲击。

“We saw when the Lehman Brothers event happened. There was sudden panic and contagion so this kind of thing is not very easy to analyze,” he said, before adding that with economic growth of 6 percent a year and a floating exchange rate, the Chinese economy was well placed to withstand external shocks.

中国沪深300指数自贸易战开始的6月中旬以来，已经下跌了13%。相反，美国的标普500指数则上涨4%。

Chinese stocks on the country’s CSI 300 index have fallen 13 percent since the United States unveiled its tariff targets in mid-June. In contrast, the U.S. S&P 500 index has risen 4 percent.

周小川说，尽管贸易战是股市暴跌的“主要原因”，但也有一些国内因素在起作用。

Zhou said that while the trade war was a “major reason” for the stock slump, there was also some domestic reasons at play.

“中国经济正面临着战略上的转变，从快速城镇化，向“新常态”转变，这将推动国有部门多元化改革，”周说。“此外，还有很多上市公司，造成了污染，投资者现在对这些股票不太友好。

“The Chinese economy is facing a change of strategy from a fast urbanization process to a new form that needs to diversify from various state sectors,” Zhou said. “Also there is a lot of listed companies, that created pollution and investors are (now) not so friendly to these stocks.”