Trump Moves From Trade War Toward Currency War
特朗普正從貿易戰轉向貨幣戰

來源： 彭博社 翻譯：世界播

President Donald Trump has already given the global economy trade wars. Now there are signs he may be gearing up for a currency war, too.

美國總統唐納德•特朗普已經引發了全球經濟貿易戰。現在有跡象表明，他可能也在爲貨幣戰爭做準備。

With a series of tweets on Tuesday aimed at the European Central Bank and an announcement by Mario Draghi, its president, that he was prepared to cut interest rates further below zero in response to Europe’s slowing growth, Trump made a rare American presidential intervention into another economy’s monetary policy.

週二，隨着歐洲央行行長馬里奧•德拉吉宣佈，準備將利率進一步下調至零以下，以應對歐洲經濟增長的放緩，特朗普發佈了一系列針對歐洲央行的推文，罕見地對另一個經濟體的貨幣政策進行了干預。

“Mario Draghi just announced more stimulus could come, which immediately dropped the Euro against the Dollar, making it unfairly easier for them to compete against the USA,’’ he tweeted. Later, he added: “German DAX way up due to stimulus remarks from Mario Draghi. Very unfair to the United States!’’

他在推特上寫道：“馬里奧•德拉吉剛剛宣佈可能出臺更多的貨幣刺激措施，這立即導致了歐元兌美元匯率下跌，並讓他們更容易與美國競爭，這不公平”。隨後，他補充道：“由於馬里奧•德拉吉的刺激言論，德國DAX指數大幅上漲。這對美國來說太不公平了！”

It was not the first time Trump has blamed currency manipulation overseas for a strong dollar that raises the cost of U.S. exports. He has already become unique among recent American presidents in a shift away from the “strong dollar’’ policy of his predecessors.

這並不是特朗普第一次指責海外操縱貨幣導致美元走強，從而提高美國出口的成本。相較於最近幾任美國總統，特朗普可謂是獨一無二，因爲他摒棄了前幾任的“強勢美元”政策。

By targeting Draghi directly and responding in real time to an overseas central bankers’ policy pronouncement, Trump was dialing up the heat. Coming just days ahead of a summit with other Group of 20 leaders in Japan, the salvo served to highlight his administration’s increasingly aggressive currency policies and the place he sees for them in his trade arsenal.

通過直接針對德拉吉，並對海外央行的政策聲明做出實時回應，特朗普正在進一步的火上澆油。現在正值他與其他20國集團領導人在日本舉行峯會的前幾天，這番抨擊突顯了他的政府日益激進的貨幣政策，以及他認爲這些政策在他的貿易武備中所佔的地位。

Finance ministers and central bankers this month agreed that a currency war -- a tit-for-tat push at times of slow economic growth to actively weaken foreign-exchange rates in order to boost exports -- is in no one’s interest. They reaffirmed commitments made in March 2018 to refrain from competitive devaluations.

各國財政部長和央行行長本月一致認爲，貨幣戰爭（即在經濟增長緩慢的時候，爲了刺激出口，某些國家會採取針鋒相對的措施，積極壓低匯率）不符合任何一方的利益。他們重申了2018年3月做出的避免競爭性貨幣貶值的承諾。

Last month, the U.S. Treasury increased the number of economies it scrutinizes to 21 from 12 and expanded its watch list from four to nine, adding countries such as Ireland, Italy and Singapore under new tougher criteria. It again refrained from labeling China a manipulator.

上個月，美國財政部將其審查的經濟體數量從12個增加到21個，並將其觀察名單從4個擴大到9個，觀察名單上新增的愛爾蘭、意大利和新加坡等國將會納入新的更嚴格標準。與此同時，美國宣佈中國並非匯率操縱國。

The Commerce Department on May 23 proposed allowing U.S. companies to seek trade sanctions against goods from countries with “undervalued’’ currencies, though it said it did not intend to target independent central banks or their monetary policy decisions. The administration has also been pushing to include currency provisions carrying the threat of sanctions in new U.S. trade agreements.

美國商務部5月23日提議，允許美國企業對貨幣“被低估”的國家的商品尋求貿易制裁，但它表示不打算針對獨立的中央銀行或其貨幣政策決定。特朗普政府還一直在推動將帶有制裁威脅的貨幣條款納入新的美國貿易協定。

Top Priority

首要任務

In a paper released this week, Brad Setser, a former U.S. Treasury official now at the Council on Foreign Relations, argued that “countering currency intervention by foreign governments should be a top priority of U.S. international economic policy.’’ Other countries’ manipulation hurts the U.S.’s ability to use exports to recover following economic downturns, he wrote.

美國前財政部官員、現任外交關係委員會成員的布拉德•塞瑟爾在本週發佈的一份文件中指出：“對抗外國政府的匯率干預應該是美國國際經濟政策的首要任務”。他還寫道，其他國家的匯率操縱損害了美國在經濟下滑後利用出口復甦的能力。

In an interview on Tuesday, however, Setser said that Trump’s ECB intervention was misplaced, largely because Draghi’s comments were aimed at domestic conditions.

然而，在週二的一次採訪中，塞瑟爾表示，特朗普對歐洲央行的干預是錯誤的，主要是因爲德拉吉的言論針對的是國內形勢。

“Most of the world recognizes that the ECB has failed to meet its inflation target and that with a slowing European economy there is pressure on the ECB to ease policy,’’ he said. Worse, Trump’s intervention could be seen as its own form of market manipulation, Setser said, and “feeds into a building narrative in Europe that the U.S. is a rogue actor under a rogue president.’’

他表示：“世界大多數國家都知道，歐洲央行未能實現其通脹目標，隨着歐洲經濟放緩，歐洲央行面臨着放鬆政策的壓力。”塞瑟還指出，更糟的是，特朗普的干預可能被視爲其自身的市場操縱形式，“這助長了歐洲正在形成的一種說法，即美國在一個流氓總統的領導下，成爲了一個流氓國家”。

Trump has defied convention in a number of other ways, including his repeated criticisms of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell for raising interest rates. He asked White House lawyers earlier this year to explore his options for removing Powell as chairman.

特朗普還在很多方面都違反了慣例，包括他一再批評美聯儲主席鮑威爾提高利率。今年早些時候，他要求白宮的律師們探討他撤換鮑威爾主席的方案。

Trump may have some legitimate reasons to grumble. The “Big Mac” approach to gauging currency valuations shows the euro is about 15% too cheap. Since Trump launched his trade wars, China’s yuan has also fallen against the dollar, prompting the president to complain that it was undermining the impact of his tariffs and his efforts to raise pressure on Beijing.

特朗普可能有一些合理的理由抱怨。衡量貨幣估值的“巨無霸”方法顯示，歐元兌美元被低估了大約15%。自特朗普發起貿易戰以來，人民幣兌美元匯率也出現了下跌，促使這位總統抱怨稱，這削弱了特朗普關稅的影響，並削弱了他向北京方面施加壓力的努力。

Those currency moves are widely seen as related to the weakening of the European and Chinese economies and a global economy that is looking increasingly fragile thanks in part to Trump’s trade wars. The fear, however, is that Trump’s anger over the currency shifts could also help fuel further trade actions, including tariffs he has threatened to impose on imported cars and parts from the EU.

人們普遍認爲，這些匯率變動與歐洲和中國經濟的疲軟以及全球經濟的日益脆弱有關，還有部分原因是特朗普發動的貿易戰造成的。然而，令人擔憂的是，特朗普對匯率變化的憤怒也可能助長他進一步的貿易行動，包括他威脅要對歐盟進口汽車和零部件徵收關稅。

A drop below 1.10 for the euro-dollar rate could inflame Trump’s temper and make him more likely to impose those auto tariffs, according to Jens Nordvig, the founder of Exante Data LLC. The rate fell as low as 1.1181 on Tuesday after Draghi said additional stimulus may be needed and Trump levied his latest Twitter missive.

Exante Data LLC的創始人延斯•諾德維格表示，歐元兌美元匯率跌至1.10以下可能會激起特朗普的怒火，並加大他徵收這些汽車關稅的可能性。週二，在德拉吉表示可能需要額外的刺激措施，而特朗普隨後也在推特上發表了他的最新言論之後，歐元兌美元一度跌至1.1181。