朱锋：国际关系将进入“素人政治”时代吗？

作者：朱锋，察哈尔学会高级研究员，南京大学中国南海研究协同创新中心执行主任、国际关系研究院院长、特聘教授

来源：中美聚焦网；察哈尔学会

微信平台编辑：周悦

乌克兰总统弗拉基米尔·泽连斯基

Vladimir Zelensky, President of Ukraine

当中国人欣喜地观察到70后一代开始崛起进入省部级领导干部行列时，世界其他国家的选举结果则揭示了全球范围内政治领袖的“代际更替”是多么迅速。从2015年到现在，世界舞台在经历了一波“年轻面孔”的冲击后，又开始迅速进入了“素人政治”时代。这一现象和5G、工业革命4.0一起，正在成为“百年未有之大变局”的生动注脚。

As the Chinese people witness a number of ministerial and provincial-level officials begin to take the reins of local government, election outcomes in other countries show how rapid "generational replacement" of political leaders has become worldwide. Since 2015, the world stage, following the emergence of “young faces,” is rapidly entering a new period of laypeople politics. Along with 5G — and other elements of Industrial Revolution 4.0 — this phenomenon is a vivid example of what President Xi has called “great changes not seen in 100 years.”

欧美政坛的“年轻面孔”和“素人政治”冲击

Shockwaves from “young faces” and laypeople politics in European and US politics

2015年10月19日，1971年出生的加拿大自由党领袖特鲁多在大选中杀出重围，成为加拿大第23任总理。特鲁多就任总理时才44岁。2017年5月7日，1977年12月出生的马克龙赢得法国大选，当选为法国历史上最年轻的总统。马克龙于2017年5月14日就任法国总统时，还未满39岁。更让人吃惊的是，2017年10月15日，刚满31岁的奥地利人民党候选人库尔茨当选奥地利总理，成为世界政治史上最年轻的民选国家领导人。这三位年轻的国家领导人基本不是“官二代”，也不是“富二代”，都是普通人家出身。奥地利总理库尔茨甚至连大学还没有毕业。

On October 19, 2015, Justin Trudeau, leader of the Liberal Party of Canada, became the 23rd Canadian Prime Minister at the age of 44. On May 7, 2017, Emmanuel Macron, born in December 1977, won the French general election and became the youngest president in French history. He was not even 39 when he assumed office on May 14, 2017. Even more surprisingly, on October 15, 2017, Austrian People’s Party candidate Sebastian Kurz, who had just turned 31, was elected prime minister of Austria, becoming the youngest elected leader in the history of world politics. All three are from ordinary families. The Austrian prime minister was yet to graduate from college.

更有趣的是，这一波世界政坛“年轻面孔”冲击尘埃未定，世界政治似乎又开始进入“素人时代”。一批基本没有从政经历，也从未在国家机构出任官职，甚至缺乏管理国家经验的“政治素人”，开始赢得国内选举，走上政治舞台。2016年11月8日的美国大选结果让多少人惊爆眼球，71岁的商人特朗普击败美国前第一夫人、曾任参议员和国务卿的希拉里·克林顿，当选美国第45任总统。2019年3月30日斯洛伐克总统选举第二轮，45岁的苏珊娜·恰普托娃以58.2%的得票率当选斯洛伐克新总统。而在这之前，她只是一位执业律师，政府工作和从政经历基本为零。3月31日，乌克兰一位喜剧演员泽连斯基在首轮总统大选中胜出，以20.9%的得票率领先于现任总统波罗申科（13.7%）和曾经两度担任总理的季莫申科（9%），进入乌克兰总统选举第二轮。4月21日，乌克兰进行第二轮总统选举，41岁的泽连斯基胜出。此前，作为喜剧演员的泽连斯基曾在乌克兰热播电视喜剧片中扮演过“总统”，他的胜出开创了当代世界政治中有人从“扮演总统”到“就任总统”这一独一无二的戏剧性转化。

Even more interestingly, following the shock from such “young faces,” world politics appears to have entered a “laypeople era”. A number of “political laypeople” — who had barely ever gotten involved in a political career, not assumed public office before, and had no governance experience—began to take the political stage after winning the election. On November 8, 2016, the 71-year-old businessman Donald Trump defeated former First Lady, Senator, and Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton and was elected the 45th US president. On March 30, 2019, in the second round of the presidential election of Slovakia, the 45-year-old Zuzana Caputova won 58.2 percent of the votes and was elected her country’s president. Before that, she had been a lawyer, with zero government or political experience. One day later, Ukrainian comedian Volodymyr Zelensky entered the second round of the country’s presidential election, winning more votes than incumbent president Petro Poroshenko and former prime minister Yulia Tymoshenko. He has now won the second round, creating a precedent in world politics of an actor who had played a president on a TV show becoming a president in real life.

民众呼唤“新人”

People call for new faces

这波世界舞台上的“素人政治”让人觉得有点匪夷所思，事实上也违背政治活动和选举政治的金科玉律，但它深刻地反映了欧美地区国内政治正在经历的深刻变化和转型，更反映出了选民对这些国家掌权的现有政治精英的不满。

This trend towards “laypeople politics” on the world stage once seemed unimaginable, and goes against the traditional rules of electoral politics; but it actually reflects the profound changes and transformation of domestic politics in Europe and the US, as well as voters’ dissatisfaction with the performance of traditional political elites.

恰普托娃能够在斯洛伐克选举中脱颖而出，很大程度上得益她对该国现有内外政策的批评，以及其个人清新、有力的公众形象。恰普托娃的竞选口号是“向罪恶宣战”，她呼吁打击腐败，是一位坚定的“挺欧派”，主张斯洛伐克需在欧盟团结中获得更大的发展。同时，她的政治立场更具有包容性。她坚定地反对斯洛伐克民族主义和政治诉求上的民粹主义，强调她的当选将促进斯洛伐克境内各个民族的团结和共同发展。3月30日当选后，恰普托娃用斯洛伐克语、捷克语、匈牙利语向支持者致谢，其政治主张得到了斯洛伐克这个历史上多民族迁移混居的中欧国家多数民众的坚定支持。乌克兰的情况则更加复杂动荡。现任总统波罗申科曾是乌克兰的巧克力大亨，季莫申科则是乌克兰石油业界的女强人。虽然2014年波罗申科执政以来许诺频频，但乌克兰经济发展低迷，政治反腐饱受诟病，乌俄关系长期紧张，乌克兰东部的分离主义势力依然顽固，政府军和地方武装的冲突中已经造成1.3万人丧生。

Caputova stood out in her campaign for Slovakia’s presidency thanks greatly to her criticism of her country’s domestic and foreign policies, as well as her fresh, powerful public image. Her campaign slogan, “war on evils,” called for cracking down on corruption. She is a resolute supporter of a united Europe, advocating Slovakia’s needs to seek greater development within the EU. Meanwhile, her political stance is more inclusive. She is resolutely against Slovakian nationalism and populist politics, and emphasizes that her election will promote solidarity and common development of all ethnic groups in Slovakia. After getting elected, she thanked supporters in the Slovak, Czech and Hungarian languages, her political position having won enthusiastic endorsement by most people. Conditions are more complicated and turbulent in Ukraine. The outgoing president used to be a chocolate magnate, while the former prime minister was the “iron lady” of the country’s petroleum industry. Despite “Chocolate King” Poroshenko’s constant promises, his country’s economy has been stagnating, politics have been ridden with corruption, relations with Russia has been tense, separatist forces in its eastern part remain aggressive, with 13,000 lives having been lost in conflicts between government troops and local forces.

泽连斯基虽然只是个演员，但乌克兰民众普遍认为他是扫除乌克兰政治疾患的“最后一张希望面孔”。与波罗申科和季莫申科坚定的“亲西方”立场相比，泽连斯基承诺和俄罗斯谈判解决乌克兰东部分离骚乱和克里米亚问题，而不是象波罗申科那样高调许诺当选之后将“收复”克里米亚失地。乌克兰政府虽然和莫斯科关系敌对，但乌克兰民众和俄罗斯民众却希望看到两国和睦相处。泽连斯基对莫斯科相对柔和的立场，反而更容易赢得乌克兰人民的理解和支持。3月末斯洛伐克和乌克兰相继出现国内大选中“政治素人”胜出的戏剧性局面，说到底，还是这些国家国内治理进程出现了严重问题。选民们对政治人物的期待发生了转移。

Though Zelensky is just an actor, Ukrainians take him as the “last face of hope” for eliminating the political ills in their country. In contrast with the determined “pro-West” position of his two main rivals, Zelensky had pledged to deal with separatism in eastern Ukraine and the Crimea issue through negotiations with Russia, unlike Poroshenko, who made a high-profile promise to “take back” Crimea once elected. Though Ukraine-Russia relations are confrontational, people of both countries want their two nations to live in harmony. Zelensky’s rather flexible approach to Russia may more easily win the understanding and support of the Ukrainian people. The emergence of “political laypeople” in elections in Slovakia and Ukraine reflects the fact that serious problems have occurred in domestic governance. Voter expectations have thus shifted.

大国政治的“素人时代”让人担忧

Worry developments from major countries’ “laypeople politics”

世界政治进程中，无论是“年轻面孔”，还是“政治素人”，虽属罕见，但他们也并非难以担当历史重任。被公认为美国政治史上最伟大总统的林肯，其担任总统前的职业生涯长期是律师。肯尼迪43岁就任美国总统，是美国历史上最年强的当选总统。肯尼迪的从政表现，从主张“高边疆”到提议建立“伟大社会”，没有人否认他对美国二战后发展的影响是巨大的。肯尼迪对年轻的美国大学生所说的话——“不要总问国家能为你做什么，而应常常问自己能为国家做什么”，至今仍为人津津乐道。各国政坛究竟是欢迎“年轻面孔”，还是愿意选择“政治素人”，是选举政治使然，是各国国内政治变迁的产物，更是各国人民的选择。

Rare as they are in world political history, “young faces” and “laypeople politics” have not always been bad news. Abraham Lincoln had been a lawyer and served only a single term in the US Congress before assuming the presidency. John F. Kennedy became president at the tender age of 43.

只是“素人政治”如果发生在大国，其产生的外交和政治挑战确实是国际社会需要警惕和防范的。特朗普上台后，基本颠覆了美国外交的自由国际主义传统。美国频繁“退群”，动辄挥舞贸易霸凌主义和单边主义大棒，甚至建立美军太空司令部，大规模发展低当量核武器和高超音速巡航导弹。特朗普虽然是“政治素人”，但却在执政两年多时间里带来美国国内的政治分裂和外交关系的“大搅局”。这样的“政治素人”甚至可能引发世界秩序的“碎片化”。在今天看来，世界政治的“素人时代”是让人担忧的。

However, when “laypeople politics” take place in a major country, we should have vigilance about the foreign policy changes and political challenges that may result. Since Trump assumed the US presidency, he has essentially overthrown the liberal internationalist traditions of American diplomacy. The US has now made a habit of withdrawing from multilateral international institutions, resorted to trade bullying and unilateralist approaches, and even established the “US Space Command,” while developing low-yield nuclear weapons and hypersonic cruise missiles on a large scale. Though Trump was a political layperson, his inexperience has not stopped him from disturbing US domestic politics and diplomatic relations in little more than two years. Such political laypeople may even spark the fragmentation of world order. Judging from these results, the era of global “laypeople politics” is a worrying phenomenon.