作者：兰顺正

首发自：CGTN

近日据俄罗斯卫星网报道，美国乔治城大学教授、CRA国际咨询公司总裁克鲁尔认为，在北极遏制中国符合美国的利益，他提出其中一项措施是控制白令海峡，掌握北太平洋进出北极的通道。而不久之后，美国阿拉斯加州参议员丹·沙利文在华盛顿威尔逊中心举办的活动也表示：美国将在该州的北极地区部署150架第五代战斗机。不难看出，美方相关人员的言论显示出即使目前面临新冠疫情肆虐、总统大选将临等困境，美方对于北极的关注不但丝毫没有放松，反而有愈演愈烈之势。

时至今日，北极的价值已被各方所了解。一方面北极地区拥有丰富的自然资源，据美国地质调查局的数据显示，北极圈内已探明并可开发的石油、天然气、天然气液储量分别为 900亿桶、1669 万亿立方米和 440 亿桶。同时北极有着大量稀土资源，目前测算北极地区的稀土氧化物资源大约 1.27 亿吨，另外北极具有丰富的水电、风电、太阳能光伏发电以及地热能等可再生资源，可供电力、取暖及交通的使用。

另一方面北极航道的战略价值也不如忽视。据预测，到2040年北极冰川将融化殆尽，届时在通过北极的三条航线就会开通，即北海经俄罗斯北极沿岸和白令海峡到达日本的东北航道，从加拿大东北部戴维斯海峡开始沿该国北部海岸到美国阿拉斯加州的西北航道，以及穿越北极点的中央航道。这些航道将有助于形成一个囊括俄罗斯、北美、欧洲、东亚的环北极经济圈，并对世界经济、贸易和地缘政治格局产生深刻影响。如一旦西北航道和东北航道开通，会成为联系东北亚和西欧，联系北美洲东西海岸的最短航线，不仅可以节约大约40%的运输成本，还可能成为苏伊士运河、巴拿马运河、马六甲海峡的替代选择。

此次克鲁尔就直言不讳的指出，随着北极冰层融化，通过北极的贸易路线将使亚洲和欧洲之间货运时间减少30%，而北极的自然资源将成为美国和俄罗斯、中国竞争的目标。

客观而言，俄罗斯是美国在北极最大的对手。俄罗斯很大一片国土都位于北极圈以北地区，对于北极博弈也最为积极，2007年8月俄国家杜马副主席奇林加罗夫率领的俄罗斯探险队，在位于北纬88度的罗蒙诺索夫海岭(俄罗斯名)插上了俄罗斯国旗，从此拉开了“北冰洋之战”的序幕。2014年俄罗斯在北方舰队基础上组建了北极战略司令部，以协调俄罗斯在北极地区部署的所有军事力量。同年俄罗斯完成了北极“三叶草”军事基地的建设工作。另外，作为在北极活动的必须装备，俄罗斯不但拥有世界上规模最大的破冰船队（40艘左右），近来还大力研发新型破冰巡逻舰与核动力破冰船。以上这些都彰显了俄在北极优势地位，如2018年11月俄罗斯国防部国家国防管理中心主任米津采夫就表示，从2019年起外国军用舰艇在使用北极航道航行前，须向俄政府相关部门通报。

为了不被俄罗斯拉开过大的差距，美国近年来也开始将目光聚焦北极。如2013年5月，美国出台国内首份《北极地区国家战略》报告，并把北极放在战略优先地位。2019年6月，美国国防部发布新版《北极战略》报告，概述其在“战略竞争时代”保护美国在北极的国家安全和利益的战略方法。针对美国当下只有两艘破冰船，并且都在维修中的境况，特朗普在今年6月已提出要在2029年之前打造新的破冰船队，计划建造3艘重型破冰船和一系列中型破冰船。在军事方面，根据美国空军网站的报道，今年4月21日首批两架F-35A飞抵阿拉斯加埃尔森空军基地，标志着美国太平洋空军司令部所属的第一个基地拥有了F-35A“闪电II”。 美国太平洋空军司令部司令查尔斯·布朗上将当时曾表示：“在北极圈内部署F-35A是我们使用第五代战斗机的重要一步，它将对支持太平洋空军的转型发挥重要作用”。而在8月，美国空军第356战斗机中队和第388战斗机联队的F-35A“闪电”II参加了红旗阿拉斯加军演，这也是五代机F-35首次参与美国太平洋空军军事演习。再结合此次沙利文的讲话，有分析认为未来阿拉斯加会成为美国第五代战斗机最为密集的一个州。而且沙利文还透露，阿拉斯加诺姆港将进行扩建，最终会成为美国在北极圈内的第一个深水港，向俄罗斯等大国“发出信号”，告诉他们美国准备在北极保卫自己的利益。

以上种种，都说明美国将会在北极地区实施一系列后续动作。而中国作为一个非北极国家，此次却被美方所针对，明显是被美方当作发展北极力量、觊觎北极领土以及与俄罗斯进行北极博弈的借口。克鲁尔称，美国及其盟友应当扩大对北极的领土要求，从而使中国在北极陷入困境，这需要美国在北极加强军事存在，需要更大强大的舰队，尤其是破冰船。不难看出，美方是企图通过拉上中国来夸大和渲染自己在北极面临的压力，从而为采取下一步行动争取更多的合理性与预算。

另外，此次克鲁尔的言论也反映了美方遏制中国的长远打算。北极对于中国同样具有重大战略意义。北冰洋海底资源可以成为中国能源和资源来源多元化的新渠道。同时北极航道的开辟将形成一个囊括俄罗斯、北美、欧洲、东亚的环北极经济圈，这不仅影响中国海洋运输业和国际贸易，还将带动中国北部沿海地区经济发展。鉴于此，2018年1月26日中国国务院新闻办公室发表了《中国的北极政策》白皮书，全面介绍了中国参与北极事务的政策目标、基本原则和主要政策主张。现在中美关系持续紧张，美国正在从各个方向围堵中国，通过对中方参与北极事务进行毫无道理的批评和指责，美方可以丑化中国在北极的形象，曲解中国在北极的合理行为，从而给中国在未来参与北极开发制造障碍。

How the U.S. is increasingly attempting to gain an advantage in the Arctic

A section of a glacier is seen from NASA's Operation IceBridge research aircraft on March 29, 2017 above Ellesmere Island, Canada/ Getty Images

Editor's note: Lan Shunzheng is a research fellow at Charhar Institute and a member of the Chinese Institute of Command and Control. The article reflects the author's opinions, and not necessarily the views of CGTN.

Alaskan Senator Dan Sullivan recently made remarks at the Wilson Center, Washington that the United States would deploy 150 fifth-generation fighter jets in the state's Arctic region, Sputnik reported on September 14. This is consistent with the U.S.' increasing interests in the region.

Today, the value of the Arctic is widely understood. On the one hand, the Arctic is rich in natural resources. According to data from the U.S. Geological Survey, there are 90 billion barrels of oil, 1,669 trillion cubic meters of natural gas and 44 billion barrels of liquid natural gas in the Arctic Circle. At the same time, the Arctic has a large amount of rare earth resources. Currently, it is estimated that the rare earth oxides in the Arctic region are about 127 million tons. In addition, the Arctic has abundant renewable resources such as hydropower, wind power, solar photovoltaic power generation and geothermal energy, which can be used for electricity, heating and transportation.

On the other hand, the strategic value of the Arctic shipping route is also not to be neglected. It is predicted that by 2040, the Arctic could be ice-free in the summer, and threes route through the Arctic will be opened.

The Northeast Passage, starting from the North Sea by the Russian Arctic coastal waterway and crossing the Bering Strait which finally leads to Japan. The Northwest Passage, starting from northeastern Canada's Davis Strait along Canada's northern coast to Alaska. And the Transpolar Sea Route which goes through the channel in the middle of the North Pole.

These routes will contribute to the formation of an Arctic economic circle encompassing Russia, North America, Europe and East Asia, with profound implications for the world's economic, trade and geopolitical landscape. For example, once the Northwest passage and the Northeast Passage are opened, they will become the shortest route connecting northeast Asia with western Europe and the eastern and western coasts of North America, which can not only save about 40 percent of the transportation costs, but also become an alternative to the Suez Canal, Panama Canal and The Strait of Malacca.

A section of glacier (BOTTOM) is seen from NASA's Operation IceBridge research aircraft along the Upper Baffin Bay coast on March 27, 2017 above Greenland. /Getty Images

Russia is currently America's biggest rival in the Arctic. In 2014, the country established the Arctic Strategic Command, based on the Northern Fleet, to coordinate all Russian military forces deployed in the Arctic region. In the same year, Russia completed the construction of an Arctic "clover" military base. In addition to having the world's largest fleet of about 40 icebreakers as part of its Arctic operations, Russia has recently been developing new ice-breaking patrol ships and nuclear-powered icebreakers. All of these demonstrate Russia's dominant position in the Arctic.

In November 2018, Mikhail Mitzentsev, director of the National Defense Management Center of the Russian Ministry of Defense, also said that foreign military vessels should inform relevant departments of the Russian government before using the Arctic shipping routes.

Not wanting to lag behind, the United States has also begun to look increasingly to the Arctic for opportunities in recent years. In May 2013, the United States issued its first national strategy for the Arctic Region and gave strategic priority to the Arctic.

In June 2019, the Pentagon released a new Arctic strategy report outlining its strategic approach to protecting U.S. national security and interests in the Arctic in an "era of strategic competition."

The U.S. currently has only two icebreakers, and both are under repair. In June, Mr Trump proposed building a new fleet of icebreakers by 2029, with plans for three heavy icebreakers and a range of medium-sized ones.

On the military front, the first two F-35As arrived at Elson Air Force Base in Alaska on April 21, marking the first base of the U.S. Pacific Air Force Command with the F-35A Lightning II, according to the Air Force's website.

In August, the Air Force's 356th Fighter Squadron and 388th Fighter Wing's F-35A Lightning II participated in Red Flag, Alaska, a 10-day 10-day air combat U.S. Air Force training exercise, the first five-generation F-35 to participate in a U.S. Pacific Air Force exercise.

Combined with Senator Sullivan's remarks, some analysts believe that in the future Alaska will become the state that has the most U.S. fifth-generation fighter aircraft. The senator revealed that Nome, a city in Alaska, will be expanded to eventually become America's first deep-water port in the Arctic, "signaling" to big powers like Russia that the United States is prepared to defend its interests in the Arctic.

Furthermore, according to another news report by Sputnik, a Georgetown University Professor has also recently said that containing China in the Arctic is in the interests of the United States. This shows that, not only is the U.S. scrambling to compete with Russia, it is also very much wary of China's presence in the region. While trying to expand the U.S. footprint in the region, it also actively targets China, reflecting its long-term plan to contain the country. Given this series of developments we can only foresee that the competition in the Arctic will intensify further in the future.