作者：蘭順正

首發自：CGTN

近日據俄羅斯衛星網報道，美國喬治城大學教授、CRA國際諮詢公司總裁克魯爾認爲，在北極遏制中國符合美國的利益，他提出其中一項措施是控制白令海峽，掌握北太平洋進出北極的通道。而不久之後，美國阿拉斯加州參議員丹·沙利文在華盛頓威爾遜中心舉辦的活動也表示：美國將在該州的北極地區部署150架第五代戰鬥機。不難看出，美方相關人員的言論顯示出即使目前面臨新冠疫情肆虐、總統大選將臨等困境，美方對於北極的關注不但絲毫沒有放鬆，反而有愈演愈烈之勢。

時至今日，北極的價值已被各方所瞭解。一方面北極地區擁有豐富的自然資源，據美國地質調查局的數據顯示，北極圈內已探明並可開發的石油、天然氣、天然氣液儲量分別爲 900億桶、1669 萬億立方米和 440 億桶。同時北極有着大量稀土資源，目前測算北極地區的稀土氧化物資源大約 1.27 億噸，另外北極具有豐富的水電、風電、太陽能光伏發電以及地熱能等可再生資源，可供電力、取暖及交通的使用。

另一方面北極航道的戰略價值也不如忽視。據預測，到2040年北極冰川將融化殆盡，屆時在通過北極的三條航線就會開通，即北海經俄羅斯北極沿岸和白令海峽到達日本的東北航道，從加拿大東北部戴維斯海峽開始沿該國北部海岸到美國阿拉斯加州的西北航道，以及穿越北極點的中央航道。這些航道將有助於形成一個囊括俄羅斯、北美、歐洲、東亞的環北極經濟圈，並對世界經濟、貿易和地緣政治格局產生深刻影響。如一旦西北航道和東北航道開通，會成爲聯繫東北亞和西歐，聯繫北美洲東西海岸的最短航線，不僅可以節約大約40%的運輸成本，還可能成爲蘇伊士運河、巴拿馬運河、馬六甲海峽的替代選擇。

此次克魯爾就直言不諱的指出，隨着北極冰層融化，通過北極的貿易路線將使亞洲和歐洲之間貨運時間減少30%，而北極的自然資源將成爲美國和俄羅斯、中國競爭的目標。

客觀而言，俄羅斯是美國在北極最大的對手。俄羅斯很大一片國土都位於北極圈以北地區，對於北極博弈也最爲積極，2007年8月俄國家杜馬副主席奇林加羅夫率領的俄羅斯探險隊，在位於北緯88度的羅蒙諾索夫海嶺(俄羅斯名)插上了俄羅斯國旗，從此拉開了“北冰洋之戰”的序幕。2014年俄羅斯在北方艦隊基礎上組建了北極戰略司令部，以協調俄羅斯在北極地區部署的所有軍事力量。同年俄羅斯完成了北極“三葉草”軍事基地的建設工作。另外，作爲在北極活動的必須裝備，俄羅斯不但擁有世界上規模最大的破冰船隊（40艘左右），近來還大力研發新型破冰巡邏艦與核動力破冰船。以上這些都彰顯了俄在北極優勢地位，如2018年11月俄羅斯國防部國家國防管理中心主任米津採夫就表示，從2019年起外國軍用艦艇在使用北極航道航行前，須向俄政府相關部門通報。

爲了不被俄羅斯拉開過大的差距，美國近年來也開始將目光聚焦北極。如2013年5月，美國出臺國內首份《北極地區國家戰略》報告，並把北極放在戰略優先地位。2019年6月，美國國防部發布新版《北極戰略》報告，概述其在“戰略競爭時代”保護美國在北極的國家安全和利益的戰略方法。針對美國當下只有兩艘破冰船，並且都在維修中的境況，特朗普在今年6月已提出要在2029年之前打造新的破冰船隊，計劃建造3艘重型破冰船和一系列中型破冰船。在軍事方面，根據美國空軍網站的報道，今年4月21日首批兩架F-35A飛抵阿拉斯加埃爾森空軍基地，標誌着美國太平洋空軍司令部所屬的第一個基地擁有了F-35A“閃電II”。 美國太平洋空軍司令部司令查爾斯·布朗上將當時曾表示：“在北極圈內部署F-35A是我們使用第五代戰鬥機的重要一步，它將對支持太平洋空軍的轉型發揮重要作用”。而在8月，美國空軍第356戰鬥機中隊和第388戰鬥機聯隊的F-35A“閃電”II參加了紅旗阿拉斯加軍演，這也是五代機F-35首次參與美國太平洋空軍軍事演習。再結合此次沙利文的講話，有分析認爲未來阿拉斯加會成爲美國第五代戰鬥機最爲密集的一個州。而且沙利文還透露，阿拉斯加諾姆港將進行擴建，最終會成爲美國在北極圈內的第一個深水港，向俄羅斯等大國“發出信號”，告訴他們美國準備在北極保衛自己的利益。

以上種種，都說明美國將會在北極地區實施一系列後續動作。而中國作爲一個非北極國家，此次卻被美方所針對，明顯是被美方當作發展北極力量、覬覦北極領土以及與俄羅斯進行北極博弈的藉口。克魯爾稱，美國及其盟友應當擴大對北極的領土要求，從而使中國在北極陷入困境，這需要美國在北極加強軍事存在，需要更大強大的艦隊，尤其是破冰船。不難看出，美方是企圖通過拉上中國來誇大和渲染自己在北極面臨的壓力，從而爲採取下一步行動爭取更多的合理性與預算。

另外，此次克魯爾的言論也反映了美方遏制中國的長遠打算。北極對於中國同樣具有重大戰略意義。北冰洋海底資源可以成爲中國能源和資源來源多元化的新渠道。同時北極航道的開闢將形成一個囊括俄羅斯、北美、歐洲、東亞的環北極經濟圈，這不僅影響中國海洋運輸業和國際貿易，還將帶動中國北部沿海地區經濟發展。鑑於此，2018年1月26日中國國務院新聞辦公室發表了《中國的北極政策》白皮書，全面介紹了中國參與北極事務的政策目標、基本原則和主要政策主張。現在中美關係持續緊張，美國正在從各個方向圍堵中國，通過對中方參與北極事務進行毫無道理的批評和指責，美方可以醜化中國在北極的形象，曲解中國在北極的合理行爲，從而給中國在未來參與北極開發製造障礙。

How the U.S. is increasingly attempting to gain an advantage in the Arctic

A section of a glacier is seen from NASA's Operation IceBridge research aircraft on March 29, 2017 above Ellesmere Island, Canada/ Getty Images

Editor's note: Lan Shunzheng is a research fellow at Charhar Institute and a member of the Chinese Institute of Command and Control. The article reflects the author's opinions, and not necessarily the views of CGTN.

Alaskan Senator Dan Sullivan recently made remarks at the Wilson Center, Washington that the United States would deploy 150 fifth-generation fighter jets in the state's Arctic region, Sputnik reported on September 14. This is consistent with the U.S.' increasing interests in the region.

Today, the value of the Arctic is widely understood. On the one hand, the Arctic is rich in natural resources. According to data from the U.S. Geological Survey, there are 90 billion barrels of oil, 1,669 trillion cubic meters of natural gas and 44 billion barrels of liquid natural gas in the Arctic Circle. At the same time, the Arctic has a large amount of rare earth resources. Currently, it is estimated that the rare earth oxides in the Arctic region are about 127 million tons. In addition, the Arctic has abundant renewable resources such as hydropower, wind power, solar photovoltaic power generation and geothermal energy, which can be used for electricity, heating and transportation.

On the other hand, the strategic value of the Arctic shipping route is also not to be neglected. It is predicted that by 2040, the Arctic could be ice-free in the summer, and threes route through the Arctic will be opened.

The Northeast Passage, starting from the North Sea by the Russian Arctic coastal waterway and crossing the Bering Strait which finally leads to Japan. The Northwest Passage, starting from northeastern Canada's Davis Strait along Canada's northern coast to Alaska. And the Transpolar Sea Route which goes through the channel in the middle of the North Pole.

These routes will contribute to the formation of an Arctic economic circle encompassing Russia, North America, Europe and East Asia, with profound implications for the world's economic, trade and geopolitical landscape. For example, once the Northwest passage and the Northeast Passage are opened, they will become the shortest route connecting northeast Asia with western Europe and the eastern and western coasts of North America, which can not only save about 40 percent of the transportation costs, but also become an alternative to the Suez Canal, Panama Canal and The Strait of Malacca.

A section of glacier (BOTTOM) is seen from NASA's Operation IceBridge research aircraft along the Upper Baffin Bay coast on March 27, 2017 above Greenland. /Getty Images

Russia is currently America's biggest rival in the Arctic. In 2014, the country established the Arctic Strategic Command, based on the Northern Fleet, to coordinate all Russian military forces deployed in the Arctic region. In the same year, Russia completed the construction of an Arctic "clover" military base. In addition to having the world's largest fleet of about 40 icebreakers as part of its Arctic operations, Russia has recently been developing new ice-breaking patrol ships and nuclear-powered icebreakers. All of these demonstrate Russia's dominant position in the Arctic.

In November 2018, Mikhail Mitzentsev, director of the National Defense Management Center of the Russian Ministry of Defense, also said that foreign military vessels should inform relevant departments of the Russian government before using the Arctic shipping routes.

Not wanting to lag behind, the United States has also begun to look increasingly to the Arctic for opportunities in recent years. In May 2013, the United States issued its first national strategy for the Arctic Region and gave strategic priority to the Arctic.

In June 2019, the Pentagon released a new Arctic strategy report outlining its strategic approach to protecting U.S. national security and interests in the Arctic in an "era of strategic competition."

The U.S. currently has only two icebreakers, and both are under repair. In June, Mr Trump proposed building a new fleet of icebreakers by 2029, with plans for three heavy icebreakers and a range of medium-sized ones.

On the military front, the first two F-35As arrived at Elson Air Force Base in Alaska on April 21, marking the first base of the U.S. Pacific Air Force Command with the F-35A Lightning II, according to the Air Force's website.

In August, the Air Force's 356th Fighter Squadron and 388th Fighter Wing's F-35A Lightning II participated in Red Flag, Alaska, a 10-day 10-day air combat U.S. Air Force training exercise, the first five-generation F-35 to participate in a U.S. Pacific Air Force exercise.

Combined with Senator Sullivan's remarks, some analysts believe that in the future Alaska will become the state that has the most U.S. fifth-generation fighter aircraft. The senator revealed that Nome, a city in Alaska, will be expanded to eventually become America's first deep-water port in the Arctic, "signaling" to big powers like Russia that the United States is prepared to defend its interests in the Arctic.

Furthermore, according to another news report by Sputnik, a Georgetown University Professor has also recently said that containing China in the Arctic is in the interests of the United States. This shows that, not only is the U.S. scrambling to compete with Russia, it is also very much wary of China's presence in the region. While trying to expand the U.S. footprint in the region, it also actively targets China, reflecting its long-term plan to contain the country. Given this series of developments we can only foresee that the competition in the Arctic will intensify further in the future.