來源：華爾街見聞

作者：卜淑情

高盛表示，美元在實際貿易加權基礎上被高估了大約14-15%，預計美聯儲明年將降息五次，推動美元指數下跌3%左右。

隨着美聯儲降息預期持續升溫，高盛對於美元的態度愈加悲觀，稱美元被高估了15%左右。

高盛Kamakshya Trivedi策略師團隊在最新的報告中寫道，儘管美元今年可能會出現下跌，但美元“在實際貿易加權基礎上仍然被高估了大約14-15%，比2022年秋季高估的峯值低了約5-6個百分點”。

他們預計，美元將在未來12個月內貶值2-3%。截至發稿，美元指數報102.35，較10月份高點下跌了近5%。

高盛表示：

進入2024年，美元仍將保持相對強勢。考慮到自上而下的全球宏觀背景，包括顯著的反通脹和強勁的增長，美聯儲非衰退性降息以及活躍的股市風險情緒，我們預計美元的強勢將繼續削弱，但仍相對緩慢。

在美聯儲釋放迄今爲止最強的降息信號後，高盛加入了“看跌美元”的大合唱。

高盛分析師Michael Cahill在上週五的一份報告中指出，在美聯儲發出將迅速實施“非衰退性降息”的信號後，高盛對其匯率預測進行了全面調整，預計美聯儲明年將降息五次，推動美元指數下跌3%左右。

法國興業銀行對於美元更加悲觀，其首席全球外匯策略師Kit Juckes預計，2024年美元指數將下跌5%至97。

根據商品期貨交易委員的數據，在上週議息會議召開之前，對沖基金和其他大型投機者自9月份以來首次轉爲美元淨空頭頭寸。

編輯/tolk

Source: Wall Street News

Author: Bu Shuqing

Goldman Sachs said that the US dollar is overestimated by about 14-15% on the basis of actual trade weighting, and it is expected that the Fed will cut interest rates five times next year, driving the US dollar index down about 3%.

As expectations of the Fed's interest rate cut continue to heat up, Goldman Sachs's attitude towards the US dollar is becoming more pessimistic, saying that the US dollar is overvalued by about 15%.

Goldman Sachs Kamakshya Trivedi's team of strategists wrote in the latest report that although the US dollar may fall this year, the US dollar “is still overvalued by about 14-15% on the basis of actual trade weighting, which is about 5-6 percentage points lower than the peak of overestimation in the fall of 2022.”

They expect the dollar to depreciate by 2-3% over the next 12 months. As of press release, the US dollar index was reported at 102.35, down nearly 5% from the October high.

Goldman Sachs said:

Entering 2024, the US dollar will remain relatively strong. Given the global macro context from the top down, including significant anti-inflation and strong growth, the Fed's non-recessionary interest rate cuts, and active stock market risk sentiment, we expect the strength of the US dollar to continue to weaken, but still relatively slowly.

Goldman Sachs joined the “bearish dollar” chorus after the Federal Reserve released its strongest signal to cut interest rates so far.

Goldman Sachs analyst Michael Cahill pointed out in a report on Friday that after the Federal Reserve issued a signal that it would quickly implement a “non-recessionary interest rate cut,” Goldman Sachs made a comprehensive adjustment to its exchange rate forecast. It is expected that the Fed will cut interest rates five times next year, driving the US dollar index down about 3%.

Société Générale is even more pessimistic about the US dollar. Kit Juckes, its chief global foreign exchange strategist, predicts that the US dollar index will fall 5% to 97 in 2024.

According to data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, before the interest rate meeting last week, hedge funds and other large speculators switched to net short positions on the US dollar for the first time since September.

editor/tolk