巴菲特：关注两个数字，便可长期取得成功！

One might ask: Isn't the value investing approach advocated by Graham and Dodd obsolete? 

Many academics would answer: yes. They believe that the market is efficient, so everything about the state of the economy and the prospects of a company is reflected in the price of a stock. Because there are many smart analysts in the stock market who try to apply all known information so that stocks do not deviate from their reasonable prices.

也许有人会问：格雷厄姆和多德所提倡的价值投资法，是不是已经过时了呢？很多学术人员会回答说：是的。他们认为，市场是有效的，所以，一切有关经济状况和公司的前景的因素都会反映在股票的价格中。因为股市中有很多聪明的分析员，他们会尽量应用所有已知的资讯，使得股票不会偏离其合理的价格。

Proponents of this theory believe that there are no "undervalued" stocks in the stock market, and that investors who "beat the market" are just lucky. Because, according to their theory, it is impossible to have the ability to "beat the market over the long term".

支持此理论的人认为，股市中是没有所谓的“被低估”的股票的；而那些所谓“能够战胜市场”的投资者，也只不过是侥幸罢了。因为，根据其理论，拥有“长期战胜市场”的能力，是不可能的。

But if you look at the statistics of the "investment world", you will find that a very high percentage of successful investors originated from a small village of knowledge called "Graham Dodd". The high concentration of successful investors in this small village cannot be explained by mere coincidence or luck.

但如果你在“投资世界”里做个统计，就会发现，有极高比例的成功者，是起源自一个叫做“格雷厄姆·多德”的知识小村庄。投资成功者在这个小村庄中所显示出的高度集中趋势，并不能单纯用巧合、运气来解释。

The common denominator of the knowledge they possess is that they all look for the difference between the value of a business (company) and its price, and profit from it. When they make a decision to buy a stock, they never care what day of the week it is, or what month it is. And they certainly don't care about parameters such as beta, the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM), the Portfolio Compensation Ratio (PCR), and so on. In fact, most of them probably don't even know what these things are. They only care about two numbers: price and value.

他们所拥有的知识共同点是：他们都在寻找生意（公司）的价值和其价格之间的差异，并从中获利。当他们做出决定要买入某个股票时，他们是从不关心那一天是星期几，或是哪一个月份。当然也不会去关心一些诸如beta、资本资产定价模型、证券投资报酬比等等的参数。事实上，他们中的大多数，可能连这些东西是什么都不知道。他们只关心两个数字：价格和价值。

以上内容节选自巴菲特1984年演讲

由数字人巴菲特播报