巴菲特：關注兩個數字，便可長期取得成功！

One might ask: Isn't the value investing approach advocated by Graham and Dodd obsolete? 

Many academics would answer: yes. They believe that the market is efficient, so everything about the state of the economy and the prospects of a company is reflected in the price of a stock. Because there are many smart analysts in the stock market who try to apply all known information so that stocks do not deviate from their reasonable prices.

也許有人會問：格雷厄姆和多德所提倡的價值投資法，是不是已經過時了呢？很多學術人員會回答說：是的。他們認爲，市場是有效的，所以，一切有關經濟狀況和公司的前景的因素都會反映在股票的價格中。因爲股市中有很多聰明的分析員，他們會盡量應用所有已知的資訊，使得股票不會偏離其合理的價格。

Proponents of this theory believe that there are no "undervalued" stocks in the stock market, and that investors who "beat the market" are just lucky. Because, according to their theory, it is impossible to have the ability to "beat the market over the long term".

支持此理論的人認爲，股市中是沒有所謂的“被低估”的股票的；而那些所謂“能夠戰勝市場”的投資者，也只不過是僥倖罷了。因爲，根據其理論，擁有“長期戰勝市場”的能力，是不可能的。

But if you look at the statistics of the "investment world", you will find that a very high percentage of successful investors originated from a small village of knowledge called "Graham Dodd". The high concentration of successful investors in this small village cannot be explained by mere coincidence or luck.

但如果你在“投資世界”裏做個統計，就會發現，有極高比例的成功者，是起源自一個叫做“格雷厄姆·多德”的知識小村莊。投資成功者在這個小村莊中所顯示出的高度集中趨勢，並不能單純用巧合、運氣來解釋。

The common denominator of the knowledge they possess is that they all look for the difference between the value of a business (company) and its price, and profit from it. When they make a decision to buy a stock, they never care what day of the week it is, or what month it is. And they certainly don't care about parameters such as beta, the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM), the Portfolio Compensation Ratio (PCR), and so on. In fact, most of them probably don't even know what these things are. They only care about two numbers: price and value.

他們所擁有的知識共同點是：他們都在尋找生意（公司）的價值和其價格之間的差異，並從中獲利。當他們做出決定要買入某個股票時，他們是從不關心那一天是星期幾，或是哪一個月份。當然也不會去關心一些諸如beta、資本資產定價模型、證券投資報酬比等等的參數。事實上，他們中的大多數，可能連這些東西是什麼都不知道。他們只關心兩個數字：價格和價值。

以上內容節選自巴菲特1984年演講

由數字人巴菲特播報