习主席在许多场合都指出，当今世界正处于百年未有之大变局。近百余年来，人类经历了两次世界大战，经济大萧条、金融大危机，难以计数的地区热点和局部战争。同时，我们建立了以联合国为核心的国际体系，包括布雷顿森林体系等，创造了延续70多年的世界总体和平。世界经济也实现了数次跨越式发展，各国在政治经济文化科技诸方面互联互通、相互依赖达到百年未有之高水平。如今，世界再次面临大变局，带来强烈震荡和巨大的不确定性，人类再次对自己生活的世界感到深深的困惑和不解，对世界秩序的前景感到深深的担忧和焦虑。我们需要认真思考，百年未有之变局对世界的未来意味着什么，对中国又构成什么样的机遇和挑战。

President Xi Jinping has pointed out on many occasions that the world is undergoing changes unseen in a century. For nearly 100 years, two world wars, the Great Depression, the financial crisis, and countless regional hotspots and local battles have been experienced. At the same time, the establishment of the international regime centered on the United Nations, including the Bretton Woods system, has brought overall peace lasted for more than 70 years. The world economy has made leap-forward progress, and the political, economic, cultural and technological interdependence and connectivity on politics between countries have reached to the level unseen in a century. Nowadays, the world is once again facing enormous changes, bringing about great shocks and uncertainty. Again, human beings are confused and anxious about the prospects of the world order. We need to carefully think about what these changes mean to the future of the world, and what kind of opportunities and challenges they bring to China.

世界是各国人民共同的

The world must be a world for all peoples

首先，任何大变局本质上都是世界力量对比重大变化引发的国际秩序大调整。产生大变局的动力首先来自生产力革命，而经济发展形态的改变则引发社会变革。大变局的基本规律是，它是一个长期、渐进的过程，这个过程充满风险和危机，从变到稳定，再走向新的变化。

First, any big change essentially consists of an adjustment to the international order triggered by significant changes in the balance of power. The momentum of these changes is productivity revolution, while the changes of the form of economic development will lead to social changes. The basic principle of the enormous change is that, it is a long-term and gradual process that is filled with risks and crises and undergoes from transformation to stability, and then to the new transformation.

西方国家认为世界历史始于1500年，而1648年欧洲经历30年战争后缔结《威斯特伐利亚和约》，确立以国家（其实是欧洲国家）主权为国际关系的核心原则，人类历史才有了真正的“世界”概念，也就是以欧洲为中心的“中心-边缘”世界秩序和格局。这个格局体现了欧洲领导世界。在欧洲列强争霸中，英国脱颖而出。两次世界大战后，美国取代英国成为世界秩序主导者。冷战后，美国成为世界唯一超级大国。

The western believe that world history began in 1492 with Europeans’ discovery of the New World—or in 1648, after 30 years of war in Europe, when the Peace of Westphalia was signed and state sovereignty (in fact, of European countries only) was established as the core principle of international relations, ushering in a world order and pattern of relations centered on Europe. This pattern reflected the European leadership of the world. Among the European powers, the United Kingdom stood out. After the two world wars, the United States replaced Britain as the dominant world power. And after the Cold War, the United States became the world’s sole superpower.

强国凭借自身实力制定于己有利的国际规则和制度，在全球治理体系中“谁胳膊粗，谁就说了算”。然而，历史的发展不以人的意志为转移，近几十年伴随经济全球化和世界多极化，世界整体和平带来全球经济大面积繁荣，也推动发展中国家力量逐步增强。全球力量不断调整平衡是历史规律，世界政治和经济面貌随着力量对比改变而相应发生变化。

Powerful countries established their own favorable international rules and a system based on their own strengths. Whoever is the strongest in this global governance system has the final say. However, the development of history is not based only on the will of human beings. In recent decades, along with economic globalization and global multi-polarization, overall peace in the world has brought prosperity to the world economy. It has also promoted the gradual strengthening of the power of developing countries. The constant adjustment of global power is a law of history, and the world political and economic landscape must adjust to changes in power.

20世纪后半期和新世纪头20年，全球化和多极化迅猛发展。如今的世界已经是各国人民共同的世界，不是一两个国家的世界，各个国家都是“世界的国家”和“地球村”的成员，都需要在以规则为基础的全球治理体系内行事，共同致力于人类命运共同体建设。

In the second half of the 20th century and the first 20 years of the new century, globalization and multi-polarization developed rapidly. The world is now a world for all peoples, not a world built for one or two powerful countries. Each country is a member of the global community. All countries need to work within a rule-based global governance system to jointly build a human community with a shared future.

“世界是谁的世界”这一历史命题，再次摆在各国的面前。这是事关各国命运的大事，也是决定世界未来的大事。这既是对百年变局之思考，又体现着对世界未来的规划。

Whose does this world belong to? This historical proposition is once again set before all nations. Here we must recognize the seismic shift affecting the destiny of all countries, which will determine the future of the world. Now let us reflect on a century of change and a plan for the future of the world.

资本主义制度面临挑战

The capitalist system is facing challenges

近几十年来一个重要变化是，资本主义作为一种经济政治社会制度、意识形态和发展模式，遭受了一系列的打击和挫折，资本主义国家软硬实力都受到严重影响，给世界格局和秩序带来影响。

An important change in recent decades is that capitalism—as an economic, political, and social institution, an ideology, and a development model—has suffered a series of setbacks. The soft and hard power of the capitalist countries have been seriously affected, which in turn has affected the world order.

从20世纪初美国经济大萧条到2008年发自于美国、波及全球的世界金融危机，百年来资本主义周期性经济和金融危机连绵不绝，资本主义国家不断做出调整、进行改革，努力保持其在国际秩序和全球治理中的主导地位。然而，如今包括主要发达国家在内的资本主义国家，百余年积累的经济政治社会矛盾不断爆发，资本主义自我调整能否解决这些问题已经被打上一个大大的问号。

From the Great Depression in the United States in the early 20th century to the global financial crisis that originated in the United States and spread to the world in 2008, the cyclical economic and financial crises of capitalism have continued for centuries. Capitalist countries have constantly adjusted and reformed to maintain their dominant position in the international order and in global governance. However, today’s capitalist countries, including major developed countries, have been experiencing economic, political, and social contradictions that have accumulated over the past century. Whether capitalist self-adjustment can solve these problems remains a big question mark.

资本主义危机的核心问题或者“软肋”依然是马克思所预言的“资本与劳动”的矛盾日益激化，贫富分化造成社会分裂严重，这成为资本主义社会开始走下坡路的主要推手。

The core problem or weakness of the capitalist crisis is still the intensification of the contradiction between capital and labor predicted by Karl Marx. The polarization between the rich and the poor has caused serious social divisions, and this has become the main driver of the beginning of the decline of capitalist society.

在经济层面，行业和资本垄断再次成为经济“不可承受之轻”，阻碍了市场经济公平竞争和健康发展。据统计，1997年以来，美国2/3的工业高度垄断，占经济总量1/10的工业中，每行业四家巨头即占据2/3的市场份额。这种垄断的结果是2017年全球“超额”（垄断）利润高达6600亿美元，其中逾2/3集中在美国，1/3是高科技公司。

Economically, the monopolies of industrial capitalism have once again put an unbearable burden on the economy, hindering fair competition and healthy development of the market. Statistics show that since 1997, two-thirds of all industries in the United States have a high degree of monopoly power, accounting for one-tenth of the total economy, and four giants in each industry account for two-thirds of the market. The result of this monopolistic presence is that global profits from monopoly reached as much as $660 billion in 2017, of which more than two-thirds were concentrated in the United States and one-third came from high-tech companies.

在政治层面，“身份政治”在西方国家政治包括选举中成为主流思想和行为依据。政党为了选票取悦具有特定“身份”的团体、群体、族群或者行业，不再为国家整体利益考虑、制定政策。“身份政治”和利益集团的叠加使得“否决政治”成为家常便饭，政府无法正常运营乃至不断停运。美国2020大选已经拉开帷幕，从民主党竞选人目前表态看，自称社会主义者或者有“社会主义竞选纲领”的大有人在，有的甚至疾呼要征收高额“富人税”。

Politically, identity politics has become a mainstream school of thought and behavior in Western politics, including in electoral politics. In order to attract votes from an organization, a societal group, an ethnic group, or an industry with a specific identity, political parties no longer consider and formulate policies for the overall interests of the country. Identity politics and interest groups have made the rule by veto a common occurrence, and the government is unable to operate normally or even at all. The 2020 US presidential election has begun. Currently, many of the Democratic Party candidates want to raise taxes on the rich, and some claim to be socialists or have socialist campaign platforms.

在社会层面，社会分配不公持续存在，贫富差距不断扩大，资本所有者包括新技术掌握者拥有社会绝大部分资源和财富，普通劳动者包括中产阶级收入几十年停滞不前。2000年以来，美国社会的劳动所得占GDP份额不断下降，美国1%高收入人群占据国家40%的收入，财富悬殊惊人。这导致了精英阶层与普通民众严重对立，社会分裂。

At the social level, unfairness persists, and the gap between rich and poor continues to widen. Capital owners, including those who possess new technologies, have most of the resources and wealth in society—ordinary workers, including the middle class, have stagnated for decades. Since 2000, the income of labor in American society has been declining. The 1% of high-income earners in the United States account for 40% of the country’s income, and the wealth difference is staggering. This has led to a serious confrontation between the elite and the ordinary people, as well as social divisions.

这些制度性矛盾造成社会改革动力不足。民粹、民族主义力量大幅上升恰恰是这一矛盾的表现。这些力量又助推国内政治和对外战略的极端化，反全球化包括反对移民、反对自由贸易、反对技术交流等等，则是其在全球层面的“泄洪口”。这样的经济政治社会制度如果不加以改革，还有多少生命力？

These institutional contradictions have resulted in insufficient social reforms. The sharp rise of populist and nationalist forces is a manifestation of this contradiction. These forces have also boosted extreme strategies in domestic politics and foreign policy. Deglobalization, including opposition to immigration, opposition to free trade, and opposition to technological exchanges—the global floodgate have been opened. If such an economic, political, and social system cannot be reformed, how much vitality is left?

2016年美国民调表明，半数以上的美国青年已对资本主义产生怀疑。法国“黄马甲”运动持续发酵，欧洲其他国家青年对现实表达不满与反抗。凡此种种表明，持续了数十年的“资本主义温和期”已发生颠覆性动摇，资本主义及其政治制度和社会架构进入大变革、大调整阶段。这个过程显然不会短暂，也不会风平浪静，不仅对资本主义国家造成震荡，也将透过紧密相连的国际体系，使得全球政治经济的不稳定和不确定性上升。

A poll in the United States in 2016 showed that more than half of American youths have doubts about capitalism; the French “Yellow Vest” movement continues to ferment, and there is dissatisfaction and resistance among young people in other European countries. All this indicates that the centuries-old capitalist era has been shaken, and capitalism—along with its political system and social structure—have entered a stage of major changes and adjustments. This process will not be short-lived, nor will it be calm. It will cause shocks to the capitalist countries; but also, because the international system is closely connected, it will increase instability and uncertainty in the global political economy.

发展中国家发展任务艰巨

The development tasks of developing countries are arduous

20世纪后半期至今，发展中国家和新兴经济体整体力量上升。在以前的工业革命中，发达国家是领头羊，相比之下，发展中国家是被动参与者，虽然能利用后发优势实现发展，成为全球生产链组成部分，但也面临经济基础薄弱等后发劣势的严峻挑战。面对新技术革命带来的机遇，发展中国家在自身发展落后的不利条件制约下，能否最大限度地参与经济全球化和科技现代化进程，是重大挑战和考验。

In the second half of the 20th century, the overall strength of developing countries and emerging economies has risen. In previous industrial revolutions, developed countries took the lead. In contrast, developing countries became passive participants. Although they can make the most of late-comer advantages to achieve development and become part of the global production chain, they also face late-comer challenges and other disadvantages. Faced with the opportunities brought about by the new technological revolution, developing countries must now confront a major test—fully participating in the process of economic globalization and technological modernization to the maximum extent under the constraints of their own backward development.

中国作为发展中大国快速发展壮大，成为世界第二大经济体和全球生产链的重要组成部分。中国的发展是内外因结合的产物，中国共产党领导中国人民改革开放，努力实现中国的现代化，为世界经济发展做出了巨大贡献，而世界总体和平、经济全球化持续向上也为中国发展创造了有利的外部环境。

As a major developing country, China has developed rapidly to become the world’s second-largest economy, playing an important role in the global production chain. The prosperity of China has internal and external factors. The China Communist Party leads the Chinese people to the reform and opening-up, striving to modernize China and making great contributions to the development of the world economy. Overall world peace and the continued globalization of the economy have also created a favorable external environment for China’s development.

中国发展起来了会走什么样的道路？习主席多次公开宣示，无论中国怎么发展，我们都不会威胁任何人，不会颠覆现有国际体系，不会寻求自己的势力范围；中国愿与所有国家分享发展成果、发展机遇。这是中国面对百年大变局的世界观。需要特别指出的是，中国改革开放40年取得的发展成就和成功经验，是中国对世界经济和全球治理的重要贡献，表明中国是维护世界和平、促进经济发展的重要力量。

What path will China take as it develops? President Xi Jinping has repeatedly declared that, no matter how China develops, China will not threaten anyone, will not subvert the existing international system, and will not seek spheres of influence. Xi also said that China is willing to share its development achievements and opportunities with all countries. This is China’s worldview in the face of the great change. It is worth remarking upon China’s 40 years of reform and opening-up: these successful experiences have provided contributions to the world economy and global governance, indicating that China is an important force in safeguarding world peace and promoting economic development.

中国走和平发展的道路，倡导维护全球治理体系并适当变革。大多数发达和发展中国家都给予欢迎和支持，希望从中国的发展经验中汲取有益的发展思路，分享中国的发展成果。这从近年“一带一路”倡议得到普遍响应可见一斑。但是，确实有些西方国家对于中国的发展有着强烈的“焦虑”、不安和误判，遏制中国、阻碍中国发展以维护其世界霸权的冲动很强。虽然消除“焦虑”、摆脱“冲动”需要时间，但如果它们在大变局这个历史阶段执意遏制后发国家，不愿对国际秩序和全球治理作出任何调整，那么各种各样的“陷阱”就会扑面而来。

China follows the path of peaceful development and advocates the maintenance of the global governance system while making appropriate changes. Most developed and developing countries welcomed and supported these proposals and actions, hoping to grasp useful development ideas from China’s experience and share their achievements. This can be seen from the general response to the BRI in recent years. However, it is true that some Western countries have anxiety, suspicions, and misjudgments about the rapid development of China, which leads to the impulse to contain China and hinder its development in order to maintain world hegemony. Although it takes time to eliminate their anxiety and get rid of impulsiveness, they are sure to trap themselves in various ways, if these countries insist on curbing the power of developing countries at this historical moment of great change, and refuse to make any adjustments to the international order and to global governance.

全球治理体系面临变革

The global governance system is facing changes

面对百年未有之大变局，全球治理体系必然会作出调整和改革，这是百年大变局的另一重要特征。

In the face of changes unseen in a century, the global governance system will inevitably be adjusted and reformed, which is another important feature.

二战后形成的全球治理体系运营了70多年，在许多方面存在着不公正不合理之处，世界就像即将驶入波涛汹涌大洋的巨轮，亟需大国的协调和共识，在维护以规则为基础的全球治理的同时，进行有效的治理体系调整和改革。这不仅关乎世界经济的可持续发展，更涉及全球安全治理规则的重新制定，关系到世界的未来。

After more than 70 years of operation, the global governance system formed after the Second World War has shown its unfair and unreasonable aspects. The world is like a giant ship that is about to enter rough seas—thus, coordination and consensus among major countries is needed, while maintaining rule-based global governance, in order to effectively adjust and reform the governance system. This is not only related to the sustainable development of the world economy, but also involves the re-appraisal of governance rules for global security to ensure the world’s stable future.

在世界亟需以规则为基础的全球治理体系的今天，全球治理却挣扎在多边主义与单边主义两大力量博弈之中，面临无法有效处理、应对全球性重大挑战的尴尬局面。从落实气候变化巴黎协定，到维护《核不扩散条约》全球防扩散体系，再到主要经济体宏观政策包括货币金融政策协调，以及维护全球贸易体系及其完善，特别是WTO的改革，如果无法凝聚各国尤其是大国的合作意愿和共识，都将一事无成。面对国际形势复杂深刻的变化，各方应共同抓住机遇、迎接挑战，寻求互利合作的双赢、多赢之道。要维护以联合国为核心的国际体系、以规则为基础的多边贸易体制，携手实现共同发展，积极推动全球治理体系改革，推动其朝着更加公正合理方向发展。

Nowadays, rules-based global governance system is urgently needed; However, global governance is struggling amid a game of multilateralism and unilateralism, which is unable to effectively address and respond to major global challenges. These tasks range from the implementation of the Paris Agreement on Climate Change to the maintenance of the nuclear non-proliferation regime of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, to the macroeconomic policies of major economies, including the coordination of monetary and financial policies, as well as to the maintenance of the global trading system and its improvement, especially the reform of the World Trade Organization. If it is impossible to consolidate the will and consensus of all countries that seek cooperation, especially among major countries, nothing will be accomplished. Faced with complicated and profound changes in the international situation, all parties should seize opportunities and meet challenges together, and seek win-win solutions for mutually beneficial cooperation. We must safeguard the international system with the UN and a rules-based multilateral trading system at its core, work together to achieve common development, actively promote the reform of the global governance system, and promote its development in a more just and rational direction.

责任编辑/张玲 顾心阳

图文编辑/姚盈