習主席在許多場合都指出，當今世界正處於百年未有之大變局。近百餘年來，人類經歷了兩次世界大戰，經濟大蕭條、金融大危機，難以計數的地區熱點和局部戰爭。同時，我們建立了以聯合國爲核心的國際體系，包括佈雷頓森林體系等，創造了延續70多年的世界總體和平。世界經濟也實現了數次跨越式發展，各國在政治經濟文化科技諸方面互聯互通、相互依賴達到百年未有之高水平。如今，世界再次面臨大變局，帶來強烈震盪和巨大的不確定性，人類再次對自己生活的世界感到深深的困惑和不解，對世界秩序的前景感到深深的擔憂和焦慮。我們需要認真思考，百年未有之變局對世界的未來意味着什麼，對中國又構成什麼樣的機遇和挑戰。

President Xi Jinping has pointed out on many occasions that the world is undergoing changes unseen in a century. For nearly 100 years, two world wars, the Great Depression, the financial crisis, and countless regional hotspots and local battles have been experienced. At the same time, the establishment of the international regime centered on the United Nations, including the Bretton Woods system, has brought overall peace lasted for more than 70 years. The world economy has made leap-forward progress, and the political, economic, cultural and technological interdependence and connectivity on politics between countries have reached to the level unseen in a century. Nowadays, the world is once again facing enormous changes, bringing about great shocks and uncertainty. Again, human beings are confused and anxious about the prospects of the world order. We need to carefully think about what these changes mean to the future of the world, and what kind of opportunities and challenges they bring to China.

世界是各國人民共同的

The world must be a world for all peoples

首先，任何大變局本質上都是世界力量對比重大變化引發的國際秩序大調整。產生大變局的動力首先來自生產力革命，而經濟發展形態的改變則引發社會變革。大變局的基本規律是，它是一個長期、漸進的過程，這個過程充滿風險和危機，從變到穩定，再走向新的變化。

First, any big change essentially consists of an adjustment to the international order triggered by significant changes in the balance of power. The momentum of these changes is productivity revolution, while the changes of the form of economic development will lead to social changes. The basic principle of the enormous change is that, it is a long-term and gradual process that is filled with risks and crises and undergoes from transformation to stability, and then to the new transformation.

西方國家認爲世界歷史始於1500年，而1648年歐洲經歷30年戰爭後締結《威斯特伐利亞和約》，確立以國家（其實是歐洲國家）主權爲國際關係的核心原則，人類歷史纔有了真正的“世界”概念，也就是以歐洲爲中心的“中心-邊緣”世界秩序和格局。這個格局體現了歐洲領導世界。在歐洲列強爭霸中，英國脫穎而出。兩次世界大戰後，美國取代英國成爲世界秩序主導者。冷戰後，美國成爲世界唯一超級大國。

The western believe that world history began in 1492 with Europeans’ discovery of the New World—or in 1648, after 30 years of war in Europe, when the Peace of Westphalia was signed and state sovereignty (in fact, of European countries only) was established as the core principle of international relations, ushering in a world order and pattern of relations centered on Europe. This pattern reflected the European leadership of the world. Among the European powers, the United Kingdom stood out. After the two world wars, the United States replaced Britain as the dominant world power. And after the Cold War, the United States became the world’s sole superpower.

強國憑藉自身實力制定於己有利的國際規則和制度，在全球治理體系中“誰胳膊粗，誰就說了算”。然而，歷史的發展不以人的意志爲轉移，近幾十年伴隨經濟全球化和世界多極化，世界整體和平帶來全球經濟大面積繁榮，也推動發展中國家力量逐步增強。全球力量不斷調整平衡是歷史規律，世界政治和經濟面貌隨着力量對比改變而相應發生變化。

Powerful countries established their own favorable international rules and a system based on their own strengths. Whoever is the strongest in this global governance system has the final say. However, the development of history is not based only on the will of human beings. In recent decades, along with economic globalization and global multi-polarization, overall peace in the world has brought prosperity to the world economy. It has also promoted the gradual strengthening of the power of developing countries. The constant adjustment of global power is a law of history, and the world political and economic landscape must adjust to changes in power.

20世紀後半期和新世紀頭20年，全球化和多極化迅猛發展。如今的世界已經是各國人民共同的世界，不是一兩個國家的世界，各個國家都是“世界的國家”和“地球村”的成員，都需要在以規則爲基礎的全球治理體系內行事，共同致力於人類命運共同體建設。

In the second half of the 20th century and the first 20 years of the new century, globalization and multi-polarization developed rapidly. The world is now a world for all peoples, not a world built for one or two powerful countries. Each country is a member of the global community. All countries need to work within a rule-based global governance system to jointly build a human community with a shared future.

“世界是誰的世界”這一歷史命題，再次擺在各國的面前。這是事關各國命運的大事，也是決定世界未來的大事。這既是對百年變局之思考，又體現着對世界未來的規劃。

Whose does this world belong to? This historical proposition is once again set before all nations. Here we must recognize the seismic shift affecting the destiny of all countries, which will determine the future of the world. Now let us reflect on a century of change and a plan for the future of the world.

資本主義制度面臨挑戰

The capitalist system is facing challenges

近幾十年來一個重要變化是，資本主義作爲一種經濟政治社會制度、意識形態和發展模式，遭受了一系列的打擊和挫折，資本主義國家軟硬實力都受到嚴重影響，給世界格局和秩序帶來影響。

An important change in recent decades is that capitalism—as an economic, political, and social institution, an ideology, and a development model—has suffered a series of setbacks. The soft and hard power of the capitalist countries have been seriously affected, which in turn has affected the world order.

從20世紀初美國經濟大蕭條到2008年發自於美國、波及全球的世界金融危機，百年來資本主義週期性經濟和金融危機連綿不絕，資本主義國家不斷做出調整、進行改革，努力保持其在國際秩序和全球治理中的主導地位。然而，如今包括主要發達國家在內的資本主義國家，百餘年積累的經濟政治社會矛盾不斷爆發，資本主義自我調整能否解決這些問題已經被打上一個大大的問號。

From the Great Depression in the United States in the early 20th century to the global financial crisis that originated in the United States and spread to the world in 2008, the cyclical economic and financial crises of capitalism have continued for centuries. Capitalist countries have constantly adjusted and reformed to maintain their dominant position in the international order and in global governance. However, today’s capitalist countries, including major developed countries, have been experiencing economic, political, and social contradictions that have accumulated over the past century. Whether capitalist self-adjustment can solve these problems remains a big question mark.

資本主義危機的核心問題或者“軟肋”依然是馬克思所預言的“資本與勞動”的矛盾日益激化，貧富分化造成社會分裂嚴重，這成爲資本主義社會開始走下坡路的主要推手。

The core problem or weakness of the capitalist crisis is still the intensification of the contradiction between capital and labor predicted by Karl Marx. The polarization between the rich and the poor has caused serious social divisions, and this has become the main driver of the beginning of the decline of capitalist society.

在經濟層面，行業和資本壟斷再次成爲經濟“不可承受之輕”，阻礙了市場經濟公平競爭和健康發展。據統計，1997年以來，美國2/3的工業高度壟斷，佔經濟總量1/10的工業中，每行業四家巨頭即佔據2/3的市場份額。這種壟斷的結果是2017年全球“超額”（壟斷）利潤高達6600億美元，其中逾2/3集中在美國，1/3是高科技公司。

Economically, the monopolies of industrial capitalism have once again put an unbearable burden on the economy, hindering fair competition and healthy development of the market. Statistics show that since 1997, two-thirds of all industries in the United States have a high degree of monopoly power, accounting for one-tenth of the total economy, and four giants in each industry account for two-thirds of the market. The result of this monopolistic presence is that global profits from monopoly reached as much as $660 billion in 2017, of which more than two-thirds were concentrated in the United States and one-third came from high-tech companies.

在政治層面，“身份政治”在西方國家政治包括選舉中成爲主流思想和行爲依據。政黨爲了選票取悅具有特定“身份”的團體、羣體、族羣或者行業，不再爲國家整體利益考慮、制定政策。“身份政治”和利益集團的疊加使得“否決政治”成爲家常便飯，政府無法正常運營乃至不斷停運。美國2020大選已經拉開帷幕，從民主黨競選人目前表態看，自稱社會主義者或者有“社會主義競選綱領”的大有人在，有的甚至疾呼要徵收高額“富人稅”。

Politically, identity politics has become a mainstream school of thought and behavior in Western politics, including in electoral politics. In order to attract votes from an organization, a societal group, an ethnic group, or an industry with a specific identity, political parties no longer consider and formulate policies for the overall interests of the country. Identity politics and interest groups have made the rule by veto a common occurrence, and the government is unable to operate normally or even at all. The 2020 US presidential election has begun. Currently, many of the Democratic Party candidates want to raise taxes on the rich, and some claim to be socialists or have socialist campaign platforms.

在社會層面，社會分配不公持續存在，貧富差距不斷擴大，資本所有者包括新技術掌握者擁有社會絕大部分資源和財富，普通勞動者包括中產階級收入幾十年停滯不前。2000年以來，美國社會的勞動所得佔GDP份額不斷下降，美國1%高收入人羣佔據國家40%的收入，財富懸殊驚人。這導致了精英階層與普通民衆嚴重對立，社會分裂。

At the social level, unfairness persists, and the gap between rich and poor continues to widen. Capital owners, including those who possess new technologies, have most of the resources and wealth in society—ordinary workers, including the middle class, have stagnated for decades. Since 2000, the income of labor in American society has been declining. The 1% of high-income earners in the United States account for 40% of the country’s income, and the wealth difference is staggering. This has led to a serious confrontation between the elite and the ordinary people, as well as social divisions.

這些制度性矛盾造成社會改革動力不足。民粹、民族主義力量大幅上升恰恰是這一矛盾的表現。這些力量又助推國內政治和對外戰略的極端化，反全球化包括反對移民、反對自由貿易、反對技術交流等等，則是其在全球層面的“泄洪口”。這樣的經濟政治社會制度如果不加以改革，還有多少生命力？

These institutional contradictions have resulted in insufficient social reforms. The sharp rise of populist and nationalist forces is a manifestation of this contradiction. These forces have also boosted extreme strategies in domestic politics and foreign policy. Deglobalization, including opposition to immigration, opposition to free trade, and opposition to technological exchanges—the global floodgate have been opened. If such an economic, political, and social system cannot be reformed, how much vitality is left?

2016年美國民調錶明，半數以上的美國青年已對資本主義產生懷疑。法國“黃馬甲”運動持續發酵，歐洲其他國家青年對現實表達不滿與反抗。凡此種種表明，持續了數十年的“資本主義溫和期”已發生顛覆性動搖，資本主義及其政治制度和社會架構進入大變革、大調整階段。這個過程顯然不會短暫，也不會風平浪靜，不僅對資本主義國家造成震盪，也將透過緊密相連的國際體系，使得全球政治經濟的不穩定和不確定性上升。

A poll in the United States in 2016 showed that more than half of American youths have doubts about capitalism; the French “Yellow Vest” movement continues to ferment, and there is dissatisfaction and resistance among young people in other European countries. All this indicates that the centuries-old capitalist era has been shaken, and capitalism—along with its political system and social structure—have entered a stage of major changes and adjustments. This process will not be short-lived, nor will it be calm. It will cause shocks to the capitalist countries; but also, because the international system is closely connected, it will increase instability and uncertainty in the global political economy.

發展中國家發展任務艱鉅

The development tasks of developing countries are arduous

20世紀後半期至今，發展中國家和新興經濟體整體力量上升。在以前的工業革命中，發達國家是領頭羊，相比之下，發展中國家是被動參與者，雖然能利用後發優勢實現發展，成爲全球生產鏈組成部分，但也面臨經濟基礎薄弱等後發劣勢的嚴峻挑戰。面對新技術革命帶來的機遇，發展中國家在自身發展落後的不利條件制約下，能否最大限度地參與經濟全球化和科技現代化進程，是重大挑戰和考驗。

In the second half of the 20th century, the overall strength of developing countries and emerging economies has risen. In previous industrial revolutions, developed countries took the lead. In contrast, developing countries became passive participants. Although they can make the most of late-comer advantages to achieve development and become part of the global production chain, they also face late-comer challenges and other disadvantages. Faced with the opportunities brought about by the new technological revolution, developing countries must now confront a major test—fully participating in the process of economic globalization and technological modernization to the maximum extent under the constraints of their own backward development.

中國作爲發展中大國快速發展壯大，成爲世界第二大經濟體和全球生產鏈的重要組成部分。中國的發展是內外因結合的產物，中國共產黨領導中國人民改革開放，努力實現中國的現代化，爲世界經濟發展做出了巨大貢獻，而世界總體和平、經濟全球化持續向上也爲中國發展創造了有利的外部環境。

As a major developing country, China has developed rapidly to become the world’s second-largest economy, playing an important role in the global production chain. The prosperity of China has internal and external factors. The China Communist Party leads the Chinese people to the reform and opening-up, striving to modernize China and making great contributions to the development of the world economy. Overall world peace and the continued globalization of the economy have also created a favorable external environment for China’s development.

中國發展起來了會走什麼樣的道路？習主席多次公開宣示，無論中國怎麼發展，我們都不會威脅任何人，不會顛覆現有國際體系，不會尋求自己的勢力範圍；中國願與所有國家分享發展成果、發展機遇。這是中國面對百年大變局的世界觀。需要特別指出的是，中國改革開放40年取得的發展成就和成功經驗，是中國對世界經濟和全球治理的重要貢獻，表明中國是維護世界和平、促進經濟發展的重要力量。

What path will China take as it develops? President Xi Jinping has repeatedly declared that, no matter how China develops, China will not threaten anyone, will not subvert the existing international system, and will not seek spheres of influence. Xi also said that China is willing to share its development achievements and opportunities with all countries. This is China’s worldview in the face of the great change. It is worth remarking upon China’s 40 years of reform and opening-up: these successful experiences have provided contributions to the world economy and global governance, indicating that China is an important force in safeguarding world peace and promoting economic development.

中國走和平發展的道路，倡導維護全球治理體系並適當變革。大多數發達和發展中國家都給予歡迎和支持，希望從中國的發展經驗中汲取有益的發展思路，分享中國的發展成果。這從近年“一帶一路”倡議得到普遍響應可見一斑。但是，確實有些西方國家對於中國的發展有着強烈的“焦慮”、不安和誤判，遏制中國、阻礙中國發展以維護其世界霸權的衝動很強。雖然消除“焦慮”、擺脫“衝動”需要時間，但如果它們在大變局這個歷史階段執意遏制後發國家，不願對國際秩序和全球治理作出任何調整，那麼各種各樣的“陷阱”就會撲面而來。

China follows the path of peaceful development and advocates the maintenance of the global governance system while making appropriate changes. Most developed and developing countries welcomed and supported these proposals and actions, hoping to grasp useful development ideas from China’s experience and share their achievements. This can be seen from the general response to the BRI in recent years. However, it is true that some Western countries have anxiety, suspicions, and misjudgments about the rapid development of China, which leads to the impulse to contain China and hinder its development in order to maintain world hegemony. Although it takes time to eliminate their anxiety and get rid of impulsiveness, they are sure to trap themselves in various ways, if these countries insist on curbing the power of developing countries at this historical moment of great change, and refuse to make any adjustments to the international order and to global governance.

全球治理體系面臨變革

The global governance system is facing changes

面對百年未有之大變局，全球治理體系必然會作出調整和改革，這是百年大變局的另一重要特徵。

In the face of changes unseen in a century, the global governance system will inevitably be adjusted and reformed, which is another important feature.

二戰後形成的全球治理體系運營了70多年，在許多方面存在着不公正不合理之處，世界就像即將駛入波濤洶湧大洋的巨輪，亟需大國的協調和共識，在維護以規則爲基礎的全球治理的同時，進行有效的治理體系調整和改革。這不僅關乎世界經濟的可持續發展，更涉及全球安全治理規則的重新制定，關係到世界的未來。

After more than 70 years of operation, the global governance system formed after the Second World War has shown its unfair and unreasonable aspects. The world is like a giant ship that is about to enter rough seas—thus, coordination and consensus among major countries is needed, while maintaining rule-based global governance, in order to effectively adjust and reform the governance system. This is not only related to the sustainable development of the world economy, but also involves the re-appraisal of governance rules for global security to ensure the world’s stable future.

在世界亟需以規則爲基礎的全球治理體系的今天，全球治理卻掙扎在多邊主義與單邊主義兩大力量博弈之中，面臨無法有效處理、應對全球性重大挑戰的尷尬局面。從落實氣候變化巴黎協定，到維護《核不擴散條約》全球防擴散體系，再到主要經濟體宏觀政策包括貨幣金融政策協調，以及維護全球貿易體系及其完善，特別是WTO的改革，如果無法凝聚各國尤其是大國的合作意願和共識，都將一事無成。面對國際形勢複雜深刻的變化，各方應共同抓住機遇、迎接挑戰，尋求互利合作的雙贏、多贏之道。要維護以聯合國爲核心的國際體系、以規則爲基礎的多邊貿易體制，攜手實現共同發展，積極推動全球治理體系改革，推動其朝着更加公正合理方向發展。

Nowadays, rules-based global governance system is urgently needed; However, global governance is struggling amid a game of multilateralism and unilateralism, which is unable to effectively address and respond to major global challenges. These tasks range from the implementation of the Paris Agreement on Climate Change to the maintenance of the nuclear non-proliferation regime of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, to the macroeconomic policies of major economies, including the coordination of monetary and financial policies, as well as to the maintenance of the global trading system and its improvement, especially the reform of the World Trade Organization. If it is impossible to consolidate the will and consensus of all countries that seek cooperation, especially among major countries, nothing will be accomplished. Faced with complicated and profound changes in the international situation, all parties should seize opportunities and meet challenges together, and seek win-win solutions for mutually beneficial cooperation. We must safeguard the international system with the UN and a rules-based multilateral trading system at its core, work together to achieve common development, actively promote the reform of the global governance system, and promote its development in a more just and rational direction.

責任編輯/張玲 顧心陽

圖文編輯/姚盈